← NOK forward model

NOK · Forward model · Technology Standards · Bull case

What has to happen in Technology Standards

Model as of

This page changes Technology Standards inside the complete NOK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NOK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value €11.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue €457M 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution €4.91B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The AI and cloud order book converts on management's own schedule and the new capacity arrives to meet it. Q2 2026 order intake was EUR 2.8 billion, net sales to those customers doubled to EUR 446 million (+105% constant currency), Optical grew 20% and IP 16%, IP order intake growth was particularly strong on Q1 design wins, and Nokia states the constraint is supply rather than demand - which is why the San Jose fab ramps in Q4 2026, Pennsylvania test and packaging goes up 10x from Q3 2026 and the NXP Chandler campus is under a definitive agreement. Here Optical and IP each run a point a quarter faster, the three Network Infrastructure lines carry 3.4 points more margin - which takes the segment's 2028 operating margin to about 17%, the top of its 13-17% target - and the exit is 13x on an 8.5% discount rate. It is worth EUR 11.23 a share.

Technology Standards

Basis quarter€407M
Final quarter€457M
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix6%

Nokia's patent portfolio, licensed into handsets, automotive, consumer electronics, IoT and multimedia. Formerly reported as Nokia Technologies, an identity confirmed by identical FY2025 net sales of EUR 1 501 million under both labels. It is about 8% of group net sales and about 39% of group EBITDA, at a 73.2% EBITDA margin.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 €391M Reported
2025 Q4 €384M Reported
2026 Q1 €385M Estimated
2026 Q2 €407M Reported
Patent licensingTechnology standards research
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.4% Held below the 3.3% the raw series fits: Nokia says Q2'26 included a benefit from catch-up net sales.
Technology Standards

Latest: €457M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 €369M
2025Q2 €357M
2025Q3 €391M
2025Q4 €384M
2026Q1 €385M
2026Q2 €407M
2026Q3E €410M
2026Q4E €413M
2027Q1E €416M
2027Q2E €419M
2027Q3E €422M
2027Q4E €425M
2028Q1E €428M
2028Q2E €430M
2028Q3E €433M
2028Q4E €435M
2029Q1E €438M
2029Q2E €440M
2029Q3E €442M
2029Q4E €444M
2030Q1E €447M
2030Q2E €449M
2030Q3E €451M
2030Q4E €453M
2031Q1E €455M
2031Q2E €457M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • ASEASONAL by evidence, not by omission: this line's measured Q4 amplitude is 0.961 - Q4 sits BELOW the Q1-Q3 level - because licensing revenue follows when agreements are signed and when catch-up is recognised, not carrier year-end budgets.
  • The 73.2% EBITDA margin is derived from disclosure: FY2025 Nokia Technologies operating profit of 1 059 on net sales of 1 501, plus that segment's disclosed FY2025 depreciation and amortisation of 40.
  • Quarterly operating margin on this line has ranged from 65.1% in Q4 2025 to 78.5% in FY2024 with revenue mix; the constant 73.2% carried forward is an annual average, not a quarterly observation.
  • Revenue arrives in steps when agreements are signed: a single large renewal moves a quarter by more than the whole line's annual trend, which is why the growth rate is deliberately below the fitted one.
NOK model map

Explore another vertical