NOK · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-29

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

CURRENCY. This model is entirely in EUROS, because Nokia reports in euros and its segment tables are in euros. The reference price is therefore the EUR 8.822 Nasdaq Helsinki close of 26 August 2026, NOT the USD 10.41 NYSE ADS close of the same session, and no figure anywhere in this spec has been converted. Two consequences to know about. First, our stored revenue series holds the same history in US dollars, converted at each quarter's own average ECB reference rate, so the basis quarter reads $5 599 million there against the EUR 4 815 million Nokia reported - the same quarter, with exchange-rate movement inside its growth rates that this model deliberately excludes. Second, the site's money formatter prints a dollar glyph in front of every figure on this page; read every one of them as euros. ACCOUNTING BASIS. Nokia publishes two operating profits for the same quarter and they disagree about whether it made money: reported EUR -50 million against comparable EUR +434 million in 2026 Q2, a gap that is mostly the EUR 390 million accelerated restructuring charge. All segment data, all guidance and all 2028 targets are on the COMPARABLE basis, so this model is too, on continuing operations after the Q2 2026 reclassification of Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Enterprise Campus Edge. The R40 card on the stock page is fed by the reported IFRS series and will not agree with this model's margin line. WHAT IS DISCLOSED AND WHAT IS NOT. Quarterly NET SALES are disclosed for all six business units, so splitting the two primary segments into their published lines copies a split rather than manufacturing one. PROFIT is disclosed only at segment level, so all three Network Infrastructure lines carry the parent segment's 12.74% derived EBITDA margin and the model differentiates their growth, which is disclosed, not their profit, which is not. The one exception is Technology Standards, whose 73.2% margin comes from its own FY2025 operating profit and depreciation under its former name, Nokia Technologies - which leaves Radio Networks and Core Software as an 8.97% residual. History starts at 2025 Q1 because Nokia recast 2024 to full year only on this segmentation; six quarters is the entire contiguous record. The 2026 Q1 column is derived as first half less the disclosed second quarter and reproduces the recast Network Infrastructure segment total to the euro. The six lines reconcile to reported consolidated net sales within EUR 13 million in every quarter, the gap being Group Common and Other net sales, inter-segment eliminations and two recast vintages. FREE CASH FLOW. The engine computes free cash flow as EBITDA less capital expenditure less tax; it carries no working capital, no restructuring cash outflow and no lease payments, all three of which Nokia's own free cash flow carries - which is exactly why Q2 2026 printed negative EUR 732 million against a EUR 434 million comparable operating profit. The projected EUR 911 million of second-half 2026 free cash flow is about 68% of the comparable operating profit those two quarters imply, inside Nokia's guided 55-75% conversion, but the model spreads it evenly while Nokia expects it as the Q2 working-capital outflow unwinds. No capital programme is encoded for the San Jose, Pennsylvania and Chandler build-outs: Nokia has disclosed no total cost for any of them, and a CapitalProgram needs one. Treat the 2027-2029 fab spend as unquantified downside to free cash flow.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.