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NIO · Forward model · Vehicle sales · Bear case

What has to happen in Vehicle sales

Model as of

This page changes Vehicle sales inside the complete NIO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NIO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.24B 93% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.58B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The guide miss is the trend, not a stumble. NIO told the market to expect 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles in the June quarter and delivered 107,658; July then came in at 35,934 against June's 40,597. In this case the intensive launch cycle raises the level without raising the trend, the average selling price gives back the All-New ES8 mix gain as ONVO and FIREFLY carry the volume, vehicle margin follows it down, and the market stops paying for a company that has still never produced a positive year of free cash flow. Volume compounds 1.5% a quarter slower, margins run three points below, and the exit multiple compresses to 0.40 times revenue at a 16% discount rate. Free cash flow never turns positive across the twenty quarters, and cumulates to -US$3.7bn.

Vehicle sales

Basis quarter$3.30B
Final quarter$5.24B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix93%

Deliveries times average selling price, and NIO discloses both halves. Deliveries come monthly, quarterly, and one quarter ahead as guidance; average selling price falls straight out of the vehicle-sales line. For the first time in the tracked window they moved together: 83,465 deliveries in the March 2026 quarter, up 98.3% year over year, at an average RMB272,973 that was up for a second quarter on the All-New ES8 mix after three years of continuous decline from RMB314,059. This vertical is 89.2% of revenue and carries all of the operating leverage.

Last four quarters
2025 Q2 $2.34B Reported
2025 Q3 $2.78B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.30B Reported
NIO brand premium smart electric vehiclesONVO brand family smart electric vehiclesFIREFLY brand small smart electric cars
Vehicle deliveries 103517/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter 103,517 a quarter: the base that, at 4.0% trend, reproduces the 107,658 deliveries NIO reported for June 2026.
Average selling price $39573 drifting +2.0% per quarter US$39,573 = RMB272,973, vehicle sales divided by 83,465 deliveries in the basis quarter.
Vehicle sales

Latest: $5.24B (2031Q1E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $1.34B
2023Q2 $1.04B
2023Q3 $2.52B
2023Q4 $2.24B
2024Q1 $1.22B
2024Q2 $2.27B
2024Q3 $2.42B
2024Q4 $2.53B
2025Q1 $1.44B
2025Q2 $2.34B
2025Q3 $2.78B
2025Q4 $4.58B
2026Q1 $3.30B
2026Q2E $4.28B
2026Q3E $4.45B
2026Q4E $4.60B
2027Q1E $4.73B
2027Q2E $4.84B
2027Q3E $4.94B
2027Q4E $5.03B
2028Q1E $5.10B
2028Q2E $5.16B
2028Q3E $5.20B
2028Q4E $5.24B
2029Q1E $5.27B
2029Q2E $5.29B
2029Q3E $5.30B
2029Q4E $5.30B
2030Q1E $5.30B
2030Q2E $5.29B
2030Q3E $5.28B
2030Q4E $5.26B
2031Q1E $5.24B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Deliveries are broken out by brand every month - 58,543 NIO, 13,339 ONVO and 11,583 FIREFLY in the basis quarter - but revenue and margin never are. No brand-level split is modelled.
  • Average selling price is a mix outcome, not a price list. It fell from RMB314,059 in 2023 Q3 to RMB220,536 in 2025 Q3 as ONVO and FIREFLY diluted the mix, then rose to RMB272,973 as the All-New ES8 and the ES9 came in above it. Forward drift is a mix assumption.
  • The volume base is calibrated to the 107,658 vehicles NIO reported for the June 2026 quarter on 1 July 2026: 103,517 times the 4.0% trend rate reproduces it exactly. Modelling the guided 110,000-115,000 instead would model a number the company has already missed.
  • 18.8% is the vehicle gross margin as reported, stated after the depreciation inside cost of sales. The whole depreciation add-back is applied once at corporate, so the group EBITDA line reconciles to operating profit plus D&A.
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