NIO · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-01

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Five decisions decide how this model reads. 1. CURRENCY. NIO reports in renminbi. Every dollar figure here is translated at the single constant rate of RMB6.8980 to US$1.00 that NIO itself used in its 2026 Q1 release. NIO's own historical releases each translate at that quarter's own noon buying rate, so the dollar series on the stock page differs from this one by up to about 1% in the older quarters; the renminbi underneath is identical. The basis quarter reconciles exactly: RMB25,532.7m is US$3,701.5m in both. 2. THE SPLIT IS THE COMPANY'S. NIO publishes exactly two revenue lines - vehicle sales and other sales - and nothing below them. Deliveries are broken out by NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY brand every month, but revenue and margin never are, and battery swapping, BaaS and power solutions have never been reported as a revenue figure of their own. No brand split and no swap-revenue line is estimated anywhere here. Vehicle sales is tabulated in every quarterly release; other sales is marked estimated in the nine quarters where it is total revenues less vehicle sales rather than a printed line, even though the identity is exact. 3. THE FIRST PROJECTED QUARTER IS ALREADY A FACT ON VOLUME. On 21 May 2026 NIO guided the June quarter to 110,000-115,000 deliveries and RMB32,777-34,436m of revenue. On 1 July 2026 it disclosed 107,658 actual deliveries - 2.1% below the low end. The unit driver is set to reproduce 107,658, not the guide, which is why the model's first quarter lands at RMB32,779m, at the bottom of the guided range rather than the middle. 4. WHERE THE OPERATING LEVERAGE LIVES. Corporate overhead is held at 13.24% of revenue - R&D plus SG&A less other operating income, less a quarter of 2025 depreciation, over basis-quarter revenue. That is deliberately a flat ratio even though NIO's operating costs have been falling in absolute terms while revenue doubled: R&D was down 40.7% and SG&A down 20.5% year over year in the basis quarter. The leverage is expressed once, in the verticals' terminal margins, rather than twice. 5. NO PRODUCTION CEILING. NIO discloses no installed capacity anywhere - the 20-F says only 'three advanced manufacturing bases'. The unit driver therefore has no cap, and at base assumptions deliveries reach roughly 632,000 a year by 2030. Nothing in the filings confirms that is buildable. NO SEASONALITY IS APPLIED, and that is a finding rather than a gap. The Chinese New Year trough is real - the Q1 factor measures 0.626 - but the centred four-quarter moving-average test fails on its own terms for both verticals: vehicle-sales signal 0.555 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.504, other sales 0.161 against 0.148. The spread is the launch calendar, not noise, and the amplitude is compressing as the base grows: Q1 as a share of the prior Q4 was 0.600 in 2024, 0.579 in 2025 and 0.669 in 2026. Applying the measured factors makes the model print 73,054 deliveries in 2027 Q1 against 83,465 actual in 2026 Q1, a 12.5% year-over-year fall nothing supports. The cost of leaving them out is that each modelled year is smooth where the real one swings.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.