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NIO · Forward model · Other sales · Bear case

What has to happen in Other sales

Model as of

This page changes Other sales inside the complete NIO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NIO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $392M 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $666M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The guide miss is the trend, not a stumble. NIO told the market to expect 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles in the June quarter and delivered 107,658; July then came in at 35,934 against June's 40,597. In this case the intensive launch cycle raises the level without raising the trend, the average selling price gives back the All-New ES8 mix gain as ONVO and FIREFLY carry the volume, vehicle margin follows it down, and the market stops paying for a company that has still never produced a positive year of free cash flow. Volume compounds 1.5% a quarter slower, margins run three points below, and the exit multiple compresses to 0.40 times revenue at a 16% discount rate. Free cash flow never turns positive across the twenty quarters, and cumulates to -US$3.7bn.

Other sales

Basis quarter$399M
Final quarter$392M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix7%

What the installed fleet buys after the car: parts, accessories and after-sales servicing, power solutions including battery swapping, used cars, auto financing and technical research and development services. It is 10.8% of revenue and, at a 20.6% margin the CFO called a four-year high, now the higher-margin half of the business. Cumulative deliveries reached 1,188,715 by 30 June 2026, and NIO attributes the line's growth directly to that base - but publishes no attach rate, no subscriber count and no revenue per fleet vehicle, so growth is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q2 $416M Estimated
2025 Q3 $376M Estimated
2025 Q4 $441M Reported
2026 Q1 $399M Reported
Parts, accessories and after-sales vehicle servicesPower solutions including battery swapping and chargingUsed car salesAuto financing servicesTechnical research and development services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 2% a quarter, well under the 8% average of the last eight, because the fleet compounds and per-car spend does not.
Other sales

Latest: $392M (2031Q1E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $210M
2023Q2 $230M
2023Q3 $240M
2023Q4 $241M
2024Q1 $221M
2024Q2 $256M
2024Q3 $286M
2024Q4 $323M
2025Q1 $304M
2025Q2 $416M
2025Q3 $376M
2025Q4 $441M
2026Q1 $399M
2026Q2E $400M
2026Q3E $402M
2026Q4E $403M
2027Q1E $404M
2027Q2E $404M
2027Q3E $405M
2027Q4E $405M
2028Q1E $404M
2028Q2E $404M
2028Q3E $404M
2028Q4E $403M
2029Q1E $402M
2029Q2E $401M
2029Q3E $400M
2029Q4E $399M
2030Q1E $398M
2030Q2E $396M
2030Q3E $395M
2030Q4E $393M
2031Q1E $392M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Other sales is a printed line in the income statement for 2025 Q1, 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1. The other ten quarters are total revenues less vehicle sales from each release's own table, so they are marked estimated even though the identity is exact to RMB0.1m.
  • The line grows because the fleet does, not because each car spends more: RMB2,748.9m over a 1,081,057-vehicle fleet is RMB2,543 per vehicle a quarter, down from RMB2,979 on the same calculation a year earlier.
  • Roughly a tenth of this line is lumpy rather than recurring. NIO attributed the March quarter's sequential fall to lower technical research and development services and used car sales, neither of which is a fleet service.
  • Battery swapping is the strategic core of the company and is not separable here: it sits inside 'provision of power solutions', which NIO has never reported as a revenue figure, and which the release still describes as carrying a gross loss whose rate improved.
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