NIO · Forward model · Vehicle sales
What has to happen in Vehicle sales
Model as of
This page changes Vehicle sales inside the complete NIO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Vehicle sales
Deliveries times average selling price, and NIO discloses both halves. Deliveries come monthly, quarterly, and one quarter ahead as guidance; average selling price falls straight out of the vehicle-sales line. For the first time in the tracked window they moved together: 83,465 deliveries in the March 2026 quarter, up 98.3% year over year, at an average RMB272,973 that was up for a second quarter on the All-New ES8 mix after three years of continuous decline from RMB314,059. This vertical is 89.2% of revenue and carries all of the operating leverage.
Latest: $7.09B (2031Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $1.34B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.04B |
| 2023Q3 | $2.52B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.24B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.22B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.27B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.42B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.53B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.44B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.34B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.78B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.58B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.30B |
| 2026Q2E | $4.35B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.58B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.81B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.02B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.22B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.41B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.59B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.75B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.91B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.05B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.19B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.32B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.44B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.55B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.65B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.75B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.84B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.93B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.02B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.09B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Deliveries are broken out by brand every month - 58,543 NIO, 13,339 ONVO and 11,583 FIREFLY in the basis quarter - but revenue and margin never are. No brand-level split is modelled.
- Average selling price is a mix outcome, not a price list. It fell from RMB314,059 in 2023 Q3 to RMB220,536 in 2025 Q3 as ONVO and FIREFLY diluted the mix, then rose to RMB272,973 as the All-New ES8 and the ES9 came in above it. Forward drift is a mix assumption.
- The volume base is calibrated to the 107,658 vehicles NIO reported for the June 2026 quarter on 1 July 2026: 103,517 times the 4.0% trend rate reproduces it exactly. Modelling the guided 110,000-115,000 instead would model a number the company has already missed.
- 18.8% is the vehicle gross margin as reported, stated after the depreciation inside cost of sales. The whole depreciation add-back is applied once at corporate, so the group EBITDA line reconciles to operating profit plus D&A.