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NIO · Forward model · Other sales · Street case

What has to happen in Other sales

Model as of

This page changes Other sales inside the complete NIO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NIO forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $6.85 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $647M 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.15B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What the sell side is actually underwriting. Twenty-four analysts polled by S&P Global carry an average target of $7.37 on revenue of RMB135.69bn this year and RMB157.06bn next. The revenue is not the disagreement: this model's 2027 figure is within about 1% of theirs. Running a slightly faster ramp through the same margins and the same cash economics gets to $6.85, and only because the exit multiple goes to 0.85 times revenue and the discount rate drops to 13%. What this case does not reach is the $7.37 target itself, and no revenue assumption gets there - the last 7% is multiple, not volume. Free cash flow still does not turn positive until the December 2029 quarter.

Other sales

Basis quarter$399M
Final quarter$647M
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix7%

What the installed fleet buys after the car: parts, accessories and after-sales servicing, power solutions including battery swapping, used cars, auto financing and technical research and development services. It is 10.8% of revenue and, at a 20.6% margin the CFO called a four-year high, now the higher-margin half of the business. Cumulative deliveries reached 1,188,715 by 30 June 2026, and NIO attributes the line's growth directly to that base - but publishes no attach rate, no subscriber count and no revenue per fleet vehicle, so growth is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q2 $416M Estimated
2025 Q3 $376M Estimated
2025 Q4 $441M Reported
2026 Q1 $399M Reported
Parts, accessories and after-sales vehicle servicesPower solutions including battery swapping and chargingUsed car salesAuto financing servicesTechnical research and development services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 2% a quarter, well under the 8% average of the last eight, because the fleet compounds and per-car spend does not.
Other sales

Latest: $647M (2031Q1E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $210M
2023Q2 $230M
2023Q3 $240M
2023Q4 $241M
2024Q1 $221M
2024Q2 $256M
2024Q3 $286M
2024Q4 $323M
2025Q1 $304M
2025Q2 $416M
2025Q3 $376M
2025Q4 $441M
2026Q1 $399M
2026Q2E $411M
2026Q3E $423M
2026Q4E $434M
2027Q1E $446M
2027Q2E $458M
2027Q3E $470M
2027Q4E $482M
2028Q1E $494M
2028Q2E $506M
2028Q3E $519M
2028Q4E $531M
2029Q1E $543M
2029Q2E $556M
2029Q3E $568M
2029Q4E $581M
2030Q1E $594M
2030Q2E $607M
2030Q3E $620M
2030Q4E $633M
2031Q1E $647M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Other sales is a printed line in the income statement for 2025 Q1, 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1. The other ten quarters are total revenues less vehicle sales from each release's own table, so they are marked estimated even though the identity is exact to RMB0.1m.
  • The line grows because the fleet does, not because each car spends more: RMB2,748.9m over a 1,081,057-vehicle fleet is RMB2,543 per vehicle a quarter, down from RMB2,979 on the same calculation a year earlier.
  • Roughly a tenth of this line is lumpy rather than recurring. NIO attributed the March quarter's sequential fall to lower technical research and development services and used car sales, neither of which is a fleet service.
  • Battery swapping is the strategic core of the company and is not separable here: it sits inside 'provision of power solutions', which NIO has never reported as a revenue figure, and which the release still describes as carrying a gross loss whose rate improved.
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