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NDAQ · Forward model · Workflow and Insights · Bear case

What has to happen in Workflow and Insights

Model as of

This page changes Workflow and Insights inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $68.57 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $139M 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.33B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Both market-levered lines mean-revert at once and the software margin stops expanding. Index AUM stops appreciating and options volume drifts back toward its 2024 level while capture keeps compressing; the exit de-rates to 13x, roughly where a low-growth exchange trades, and the discount rate rises to 9.25%. What this case does NOT assume is a recession in Financial Technology: ARR keeps compounding, just at a lower monetisation rate.

Workflow and Insights

Basis quarter$133M
Final quarter$139M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix7%

eVestment institutional analytics, investor-relations and governance workflow, and ESG and board software, sold as subscriptions to asset managers, allocators and listed-company teams. It is the one line in the company with no published operating driver at all: Capital Access Platforms ARR is disclosed only in total, so nothing separates this line's recurring base from Data and Listing Services. Growth is therefore modelled as a rate, and the rate is a slow one, 5.6% year on year in the basis quarter on the restated basis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $128M Estimated
2025 Q4 $129M Reported
2026 Q1 $131M Reported
2026 Q2 $133M Reported
eVestment institutional data and analyticsInvestor relations intelligenceGovernance and board solutionsESG and sustainability workflow
Sequential growth +1.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.9% 4.9% a year, just below the 5.6% year on year the restated basis quarter printed ($133M against $126M).
Workflow and Insights

Latest: $139M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $125M
2024Q2 $127M
2024Q3 $129M
2024Q4 $124M
2025Q1 $123M
2025Q2 $126M
2025Q3 $128M
2025Q4 $129M
2026Q1 $131M
2026Q2 $133M
2026Q3E $134M
2026Q4E $134M
2027Q1E $134M
2027Q2E $135M
2027Q3E $135M
2027Q4E $136M
2028Q1E $136M
2028Q2E $136M
2028Q3E $137M
2028Q4E $137M
2029Q1E $137M
2029Q2E $137M
2029Q3E $138M
2029Q4E $138M
2030Q1E $138M
2030Q2E $138M
2030Q3E $138M
2030Q4E $139M
2031Q1E $139M
2031Q2E $139M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This line carries the model's one basis change. Solovis, sold in October 2025, was reclassified out of Capital Access Platforms into Other for all prior periods, but the restatement is published only back to 2024 Q4. The 2024 Q1 to Q3 quarters here are as originally reported and carry roughly $7M a quarter that later moved to Other, which is the $5M step down at 2024 Q4.
  • The 2025 Q3 value of $128M is the only estimated figure in this model. It is derived, not apportioned: restated full-year 2025 Workflow and Insights of $506M less the restated $123M, $126M and $129M of the other three quarters.
  • Every other driver kind was rejected here for a stated reason. A subscription driver needs subscribers and a price, and neither is published. A capacity driver needs an ARR base, and Capital Access Platforms ARR is not split. A unit driver needs a volume, and there is none. Growth is what is left, and saying so is a finding rather than a gap.
  • The margin is the Capital Access Platforms divisional margin applied uniformly, as it is on the other two lines of that division.
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