← NDAQ forward model

NDAQ · Forward model · Index · Bear case

What has to happen in Index

Model as of

This page changes Index inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $68.57 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $342M 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.98B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Both market-levered lines mean-revert at once and the software margin stops expanding. Index AUM stops appreciating and options volume drifts back toward its 2024 level while capture keeps compressing; the exit de-rates to 13x, roughly where a low-growth exchange trades, and the discount rate rises to 9.25%. What this case does NOT assume is a recession in Financial Technology: ARR keeps compounding, just at a lower monetisation rate.

Index

Basis quarter$271M
Final quarter$342M
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix17%

Licence fees on assets that track a Nasdaq index, overwhelmingly the Nasdaq-100. The volume metric is average ETP assets under management, which crossed $1 trillion for the first time in the basis quarter at $1,014 billion, and the monetisation metric is revenue per billion of that average, $261,341 a quarter once the disclosed one-time contract-modification benefit is removed. The line grew 38% year on year. The release itself says why that number needs reading twice: $260 billion of the last twelve months' AUM growth was market appreciation against $109 billion of net inflows.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $206M Reported
2025 Q4 $232M Reported
2026 Q1 $220M Reported
2026 Q2 $271M Reported
Exchange-traded product licence feesIndex options and futures licence feesIndex data and custom index services
Average ETP AUM ($B) 1014/qtr growing +3.5% per quarter $1,014B of average ETP AUM tracking Nasdaq indexes in the quarter, printed in the Key Drivers table.
Revenue per $B of average AUM $261341 drifting −0.8% per quarter $271M less the disclosed $6M one-time contract benefit, over $1,014B. Nasdaq's own adjusted growth makes the same removal.
Index

Latest: $342M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $168M
2024Q2 $167M
2024Q3 $182M
2024Q4 $188M
2025Q1 $193M
2025Q2 $196M
2025Q3 $206M
2025Q4 $232M
2026Q1 $220M
2026Q2 $271M
2026Q3E $270M
2026Q4E $275M
2027Q1E $279M
2027Q2E $284M
2027Q3E $288M
2027Q4E $292M
2028Q1E $296M
2028Q2E $300M
2028Q3E $304M
2028Q4E $307M
2029Q1E $311M
2029Q2E $315M
2029Q3E $318M
2029Q4E $322M
2030Q1E $325M
2030Q2E $329M
2030Q3E $332M
2030Q4E $336M
2031Q1E $339M
2031Q2E $342M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The $6M one-time benefit is removed from the driver's price, so the model reproduces $265M of recurring-basis Index revenue rather than the $271M printed. Nasdaq's own adjusted growth rate, 35% against the reported 38%, makes exactly the same removal.
  • Revenue per billion of AUM is not a pure ETP licence rate. Index options and futures licensing and index data ride inside it, which is why it is well above any headline ETF fee. Index options revenue more than doubled year on year for the fourth consecutive quarter, so the mix inside this line is shifting toward a stream that does not depend on AUM at all.
  • This is the one place a market call enters the revenue build, and it is why the fourth case on this page exists: a 20% drawdown in average AUM two quarters out, after which the base grows on inflows alone.
  • The margin is the Capital Access Platforms divisional margin applied uniformly. Index is very probably the highest-margin line in the company and Nasdaq does not disclose it, so no split is asserted.
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