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NDAQ · Forward model · Workflow and Insights · Index reset case

What has to happen in Workflow and Insights

Model as of

This page changes Workflow and Insights inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $96.09 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $163M 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.53B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The single most testable claim in the quarter, isolated. Nasdaq disclosed that $260 billion of the last twelve months' AUM growth was market appreciation against $109 billion of net inflows: 70% of it was the market, not new money. This case takes that appreciation back out - a 20% drawdown in average ETP AUM two quarters from the basis, after which the base grows on inflows alone - and touches nothing else. Every other line is the base case. What this case does NOT reach is a bear case: fair value lands close to the tape, and that is the finding.

Workflow and Insights

Basis quarter$133M
Final quarter$163M
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix8%

eVestment institutional analytics, investor-relations and governance workflow, and ESG and board software, sold as subscriptions to asset managers, allocators and listed-company teams. It is the one line in the company with no published operating driver at all: Capital Access Platforms ARR is disclosed only in total, so nothing separates this line's recurring base from Data and Listing Services. Growth is therefore modelled as a rate, and the rate is a slow one, 5.6% year on year in the basis quarter on the restated basis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $128M Estimated
2025 Q4 $129M Reported
2026 Q1 $131M Reported
2026 Q2 $133M Reported
eVestment institutional data and analyticsInvestor relations intelligenceGovernance and board solutionsESG and sustainability workflow
Sequential growth +1.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.9% 4.9% a year, just below the 5.6% year on year the restated basis quarter printed ($133M against $126M).
Workflow and Insights

Latest: $163M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $125M
2024Q2 $127M
2024Q3 $129M
2024Q4 $124M
2025Q1 $123M
2025Q2 $126M
2025Q3 $128M
2025Q4 $129M
2026Q1 $131M
2026Q2 $133M
2026Q3E $135M
2026Q4E $136M
2027Q1E $138M
2027Q2E $139M
2027Q3E $141M
2027Q4E $142M
2028Q1E $144M
2028Q2E $145M
2028Q3E $147M
2028Q4E $148M
2029Q1E $150M
2029Q2E $151M
2029Q3E $153M
2029Q4E $154M
2030Q1E $156M
2030Q2E $157M
2030Q3E $159M
2030Q4E $160M
2031Q1E $162M
2031Q2E $163M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This line carries the model's one basis change. Solovis, sold in October 2025, was reclassified out of Capital Access Platforms into Other for all prior periods, but the restatement is published only back to 2024 Q4. The 2024 Q1 to Q3 quarters here are as originally reported and carry roughly $7M a quarter that later moved to Other, which is the $5M step down at 2024 Q4.
  • The 2025 Q3 value of $128M is the only estimated figure in this model. It is derived, not apportioned: restated full-year 2025 Workflow and Insights of $506M less the restated $123M, $126M and $129M of the other three quarters.
  • Every other driver kind was rejected here for a stated reason. A subscription driver needs subscribers and a price, and neither is published. A capacity driver needs an ARR base, and Capital Access Platforms ARR is not split. A unit driver needs a volume, and there is none. Growth is what is left, and saying so is a finding rather than a gap.
  • The margin is the Capital Access Platforms divisional margin applied uniformly, as it is on the other two lines of that division.
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