NDAQ · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-09-10

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

WHAT IS REPORTED. All seven verticals are printed lines. Nasdaq publishes a Revenue Detail table every quarter that splits Capital Access Platforms into Data and Listing Services, Index and Workflow and Insights, and Financial Technology into Financial Crime Management Technology, Regulatory Technology and Capital Markets Technology; Market Services is carried NET of the $712M of transaction rebates and $320M of brokerage, clearance and exchange fees that pass straight through. Nothing here is apportioned. Exactly one figure in ten quarters of history is estimated: Workflow and Insights in 2025 Q3, derived as restated full-year 2025 of $506M less the restated $123M, $126M and $129M of the other three quarters. WHAT THE HISTORY DOES NOT COVER. The reported Other revenues line - $9M to $17M a quarter through 2025 - is not a vertical, because it is the residue of divested businesses and it reached NIL in the basis quarter. A line whose curve can only ever be zero would render as a segment, a chart and a share of revenue, all of them zero. The consequence is visible and deliberate: the consolidated history above sits below reported net revenue by exactly that Other line in every quarter before the basis ($1,399M against a reported $1,407M in 2026 Q1, for instance) and matches it exactly at 2026 Q2, where the seven lines sum to $1,500M on the nose. THE ONE BASIS CHANGE. Solovis was sold in October 2025 and reclassified out of Capital Access Platforms into Other for all prior periods, but Nasdaq publishes that restatement only back to 2024 Q4. The three 2024 quarters in the Workflow and Insights line are as originally reported and carry roughly $7M a quarter that later moved, which is the $5M step down at 2024 Q4. Backing a quarterly Solovis figure out of the annual restatement would be apportioning a segment into unpublished sub-periods, so it is not done. WHAT IS ASSUMED. Every forward rate. Also two structural assumptions worth naming. First, margin: Nasdaq publishes operating income by DIVISION only, so the Capital Access Platforms margin of 65.4% is applied uniformly to listings, index and workflow alike, and the Financial Technology margin of 50.1% to all three of its lines. Index is very probably the highest-margin line in the company; that is not disclosed and it is not invented here. Second, corporate overhead of 1.87% of net revenue is the corporate segment's $150M operating loss less its $122M of acquired-intangible amortisation, which EBITDA adds back - a $28M residue of merger, restructuring, legal and divestiture charges. The release states the Adenza restructuring is finished, so holding that residue flat builds in conservatism. WHAT IT REPRODUCES. Nasdaq guides no revenue, so the target is the last reported quarter. Evaluated at their basis levels the seven drivers total $1,494.0M against a target of $1,494.0M - the reported $1,500M less the $6M one-time Index contract-modification benefit the company itself strips out of adjusted growth - for an error of zero. EBITDA at those levels is $873.2M against the reported $877M, and the $3.8M gap is that same $6M carried at the Capital Access Platforms margin. On the expense side the model's implied 2026 non-GAAP operating expenses land at about $2,570M against the guided $2,530M-$2,570M, at the top of the range. WHERE THE VALUE SITS. 81% of enterprise value is in the terminal, above the two-thirds line, so the exit multiple is the number to argue about rather than the revenue build: 13.5x gives $90.87 a share, 14.5x $97.01, 15.5x $103.15, 16.5x $109.28 and 17.5x $115.42. The discount rate is far flatter - 7.5% gives $108 and 9.5% gives $98.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.