← NDAQ forward model

NDAQ · Forward model · Index · Bull case

What has to happen in Index

Model as of

This page changes Index inside the complete NDAQ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NDAQ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $132.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $453M 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.77B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The One Nasdaq cross-sell thesis works and the index franchise keeps taking share of a growing ETF market. Cross-sells stay above 15% of the Financial Technology pipeline and the Verafin enterprise motion scales, so ARR growth holds in the mid-teens instead of decaying, margins expand faster than the base glide, and the market keeps paying 17x for a 59%-EBITDA-margin recurring-revenue compounder. What this case does NOT assume is any acceleration in Market Services volume beyond the base.

Index

Basis quarter$271M
Final quarter$453M
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix17%

Licence fees on assets that track a Nasdaq index, overwhelmingly the Nasdaq-100. The volume metric is average ETP assets under management, which crossed $1 trillion for the first time in the basis quarter at $1,014 billion, and the monetisation metric is revenue per billion of that average, $261,341 a quarter once the disclosed one-time contract-modification benefit is removed. The line grew 38% year on year. The release itself says why that number needs reading twice: $260 billion of the last twelve months' AUM growth was market appreciation against $109 billion of net inflows.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $206M Reported
2025 Q4 $232M Reported
2026 Q1 $220M Reported
2026 Q2 $271M Reported
Exchange-traded product licence feesIndex options and futures licence feesIndex data and custom index services
Average ETP AUM ($B) 1014/qtr growing +3.5% per quarter $1,014B of average ETP AUM tracking Nasdaq indexes in the quarter, printed in the Key Drivers table.
Revenue per $B of average AUM $261341 drifting −0.8% per quarter $271M less the disclosed $6M one-time contract benefit, over $1,014B. Nasdaq's own adjusted growth makes the same removal.
Index

Latest: $453M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $168M
2024Q2 $167M
2024Q3 $182M
2024Q4 $188M
2025Q1 $193M
2025Q2 $196M
2025Q3 $206M
2025Q4 $232M
2026Q1 $220M
2026Q2 $271M
2026Q3E $274M
2026Q4E $282M
2027Q1E $291M
2027Q2E $300M
2027Q3E $309M
2027Q4E $318M
2028Q1E $327M
2028Q2E $336M
2028Q3E $345M
2028Q4E $354M
2029Q1E $363M
2029Q2E $372M
2029Q3E $382M
2029Q4E $392M
2030Q1E $401M
2030Q2E $411M
2030Q3E $421M
2030Q4E $432M
2031Q1E $442M
2031Q2E $453M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The $6M one-time benefit is removed from the driver's price, so the model reproduces $265M of recurring-basis Index revenue rather than the $271M printed. Nasdaq's own adjusted growth rate, 35% against the reported 38%, makes exactly the same removal.
  • Revenue per billion of AUM is not a pure ETP licence rate. Index options and futures licensing and index data ride inside it, which is why it is well above any headline ETF fee. Index options revenue more than doubled year on year for the fourth consecutive quarter, so the mix inside this line is shifting toward a stream that does not depend on AUM at all.
  • This is the one place a market call enters the revenue build, and it is why the fourth case on this page exists: a 20% drawdown in average AUM two quarters out, after which the base grows on inflows alone.
  • The margin is the Capital Access Platforms divisional margin applied uniformly. Index is very probably the highest-margin line in the company and Nasdaq does not disclose it, so no split is asserted.
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