META · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Meta reports TWO segments, Family of Apps and Reality Labs, and splits Family of Apps into Advertising and Other revenue on the face of the release. This model carries those three reported lines exactly as disclosed for all six quarters shown - 2026 Q2 is $59,363M advertising, $1,007M other, $431M Reality Labs, $60,801M total, per the 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - and adds two more, Business AI and Meta AI, which have NO history and start from zero in the projection. Business AI is agents sold to businesses; Meta AI is the assistant sold to people, taking a share of what consumers pay OpenAI, Google, xAI and Anthropic today. Neither is a re-cut of anything Meta reported: both are held at zero across every reported quarter. Nothing here is apportioned: every historical number is a reported segment figure, which is why no quarter is flagged estimated. What IS assumed is the split of company-level costs and capital across the lines: Meta gives segment operating income but no segment depreciation or capex, so the margin and capex-intensity inputs on each vertical are ours. Advertising carries almost all of the AI infrastructure spend, because that is what the money is being spent on. Reality Labs is carried at a margin below -900% of its own revenue, which is what a $4.6B quarterly operating loss on $431M of revenue actually is.
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Latest: $80.92B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $42.31B |
| 2025Q2 | $47.52B |
| 2025Q3 | $51.24B |
| 2025Q4 | $59.89B |
| 2026Q1 | $56.31B |
| 2026Q2 | $60.80B |
| 2026Q3E | $61.74B |
| 2026Q4E | $62.64B |
| 2027Q1E | $64.12B |
| 2027Q2E | $65.23B |
| 2027Q3E | $66.32B |
| 2027Q4E | $67.39B |
| 2028Q1E | $68.44B |
| 2028Q2E | $69.48B |
| 2028Q3E | $70.49B |
| 2028Q4E | $71.49B |
| 2029Q1E | $72.48B |
| 2029Q2E | $73.45B |
| 2029Q3E | $74.41B |
| 2029Q4E | $75.37B |
| 2030Q1E | $76.31B |
| 2030Q2E | $77.24B |
| 2030Q3E | $78.17B |
| 2030Q4E | $79.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $80.01B |
| 2031Q2E | $80.92B |
Where each case comes from
Superintelligence case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Superintelligence column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What Meta says the AI is already doing
- Jul 29, 2026 AI is accelerating our core business today, powering our next generation of products, and opening the door to entirely new enterprise opportunities. The results are already showing, and I'm optimistic about the potential ahead.
- Jul 29, 2026 Ad impressions delivered across our Family of Apps increased by 14% year-over-year. Average price per ad increased by 12% year-over-year.
Selling intelligence, not compute
- Jul 29, 2026 We're getting a lot of offers for compute at a significant premium for what we paid for it.
- Jul 29, 2026 It would be foolish to basically just sell all of the compute and take a short-term profit, when the company expects a significantly higher margin on selling intelligence rather than selling compute directly.
What it is costing to find out
- Jul 29, 2026 We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $130-145 billion, narrowed from our prior outlook of $125-145 billion.
- Jan 28, 2026 We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $115-135 billion, with year-over-year growth driven by increased investment to support our Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 11.0% a year with an exit multiple of 3.5x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $2.17B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $318.20B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $141.93B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 3.5x |
| Terminal value | $1.11T |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $660.93B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 100% |
| Enterprise value | $663.10B |
| Net cash | $6.60B |
| Equity value | $669.70B |
| Shares | 2.57B |
| Fair value per share | $260.99 |
| Against the deployed price of $725.18, as of | −64% |
6x forward revenue against roughly 6.1x trailing at $543.67 today. The terminal year is growing near 15%, not 28%, so paying a premium to today's multiple for a slower business needs an argument this model does not make. It is still the largest single input: halve it and the fair value moves further than every operating assumption combined.
Read the other way round: at $725.18 the market is paying 9.8x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Advertising | Family of Apps — Other | Reality Labs | Business AI | Meta AI | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $60.19B | $1.11B | $443M | $0 | $0 | $61.74B | +20% | $23.45B | $39.59B | −$16.14B | −6 | −$15.73B |
| 2026 Q4E | $60.98B | $1.20B | $455M | $0 | $0 | $62.64B | +5% | $24.30B | $37.48B | −$13.18B | −16 | −$12.51B |
| 2027 Q1E | $61.77B | $1.30B | $467M | $342M | $241M | $64.12B | +14% | $24.87B | $35.76B | −$10.89B | −3 | −$10.07B |
| 2027 Q2E | $62.56B | $1.39B | $478M | $500M | $302M | $65.23B | +7% | $25.64B | $34.08B | −$8.44B | −6 | −$7.60B |
| 2027 Q3E | $63.35B | $1.49B | $489M | $640M | $364M | $66.32B | +7% | $26.42B | $32.56B | −$6.15B | −2 | −$5.39B |
| 2027 Q4E | $64.13B | $1.58B | $499M | $763M | $425M | $67.39B | +8% | $27.18B | $31.18B | −$4.00B | +2 | −$3.42B |
| 2028 Q1E | $64.91B | $1.66B | $509M | $872M | $486M | $68.44B | +7% | $27.94B | $29.93B | −$1.99B | +4 | −$1.66B |
| 2028 Q2E | $65.70B | $1.75B | $518M | $966M | $547M | $69.48B | +7% | $28.69B | $28.80B | −$116M | +6 | −$94M |
| 2028 Q3E | $66.48B | $1.83B | $528M | $1.05B | $607M | $70.49B | +6% | $29.42B | $27.79B | $1.37B | +8 | $1.08B |
| 2028 Q4E | $67.26B | $1.91B | $537M | $1.12B | $666M | $71.49B | +6% | $30.13B | $26.87B | $2.74B | +10 | $2.11B |
| 2029 Q1E | $68.04B | $1.99B | $545M | $1.18B | $724M | $72.48B | +6% | $30.82B | $26.05B | $4.01B | +11 | $3.01B |
| 2029 Q2E | $68.82B | $2.07B | $554M | $1.23B | $781M | $73.45B | +6% | $31.50B | $25.32B | $5.19B | +13 | $3.80B |
| 2029 Q3E | $69.60B | $2.14B | $562M | $1.27B | $836M | $74.41B | +6% | $32.16B | $24.66B | $6.30B | +14 | $4.49B |
| 2029 Q4E | $70.38B | $2.21B | $570M | $1.31B | $891M | $75.37B | +5% | $32.80B | $24.08B | $7.33B | +15 | $5.08B |
| 2030 Q1E | $71.17B | $2.29B | $578M | $1.34B | $944M | $76.31B | +5% | $33.42B | $23.56B | $8.28B | +16 | $5.60B |
| 2030 Q2E | $71.95B | $2.36B | $586M | $1.36B | $996M | $77.24B | +5% | $34.03B | $23.11B | $9.18B | +17 | $6.04B |
| 2030 Q3E | $72.73B | $2.43B | $593M | $1.37B | $1.05B | $78.17B | +5% | $34.63B | $22.71B | $10.01B | +18 | $6.42B |
| 2030 Q4E | $73.52B | $2.49B | $601M | $1.38B | $1.10B | $79.09B | +5% | $35.21B | $22.36B | $10.79B | +19 | $6.74B |
| 2031 Q1E | $74.31B | $2.56B | $608M | $1.39B | $1.15B | $80.01B | +5% | $35.77B | $22.06B | $11.52B | +19 | $7.01B |
| 2031 Q2E | $75.09B | $2.63B | $616M | $1.39B | $1.19B | $80.92B | +5% | $36.33B | $21.81B | $12.20B | +20 | $7.24B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $757.11 | Initial model, built off the 2026 Q2 print: $60.801B revenue, $59.363B advertising, $1.007B Family of Apps other, $431M Reality Labs, 3.60B daily active people, $31.08B of quarterly capex against $130-145B of full-year guidance. Five verticals: the three reported lines plus Business AI and Meta AI, neither of which has any history, both opening in 2027 Q1. Meta AI is modelled as share of a consumer assistant market estimated at $6.5B a quarter. |