MDB · Forward model · Atlas-related · Bull case
What has to happen in Atlas-related
Model as of
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Atlas-related
Atlas is MongoDB's managed cloud database, billed by consumption of compute, storage and data transfer rather than by seat. It is 74.5% of total revenue in the basis quarter and supplies essentially all of the growth: revenue expands because existing workloads grow and new workloads land inside existing accounts, which is what the disclosed 121% net ARR expansion rate measures. MongoDB publishes no capacity, no units and no price for Atlas, and the customer counts it does publish are floors that grew 19.0% year over year against Atlas revenue at 29.4% - so a deseasonalised trend growth rate paired with a derived seasonal shape is the only honest driver.
Latest: $1.27B (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q1 | $54M |
| 2021Q2 | $61M |
| 2021Q3 | $71M |
| 2021Q4 | $84M |
| 2022Q1 | $94M |
| 2022Q2 | $112M |
| 2022Q3 | $131M |
| 2022Q4 | $156M |
| 2023Q1 | $170M |
| 2023Q2 | $193M |
| 2023Q3 | $211M |
| 2023Q4 | $234M |
| 2024Q1 | $238M |
| 2024Q2 | $267M |
| 2024Q3 | $287M |
| 2024Q4 | $313M |
| 2025Q1 | $314M |
| 2025Q2 | $340M |
| 2025Q3 | $363M |
| 2025Q4 | $389M |
| 2026Q1 | $396M |
| 2026Q2 | $439M |
| 2026Q3 | $470M |
| 2026Q4 | $503M |
| 2027Q1 | $512M |
| 2027Q2E | $559M |
| 2027Q3E | $592M |
| 2027Q4E | $639M |
| 2028Q1E | $640M |
| 2028Q2E | $692M |
| 2028Q3E | $728M |
| 2028Q4E | $780M |
| 2029Q1E | $776M |
| 2029Q2E | $835M |
| 2029Q3E | $874M |
| 2029Q4E | $932M |
| 2030Q1E | $924M |
| 2030Q2E | $991M |
| 2030Q3E | $1.03B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.10B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.09B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.16B |
| 2031Q3E | $1.21B |
| 2031Q4E | $1.28B |
| 2032Q1E | $1.27B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter is the Atlas-related line of the ASC 606 revenue disaggregation table, an exact dollar disclosure in each 10-Q and 10-K. Four fourth quarters - fiscal 2021 through 2024 - are marked estimated because a January quarter is never filed on its own and they are the fiscal year less the filed nine months. The fiscal 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q4 figures are NOT marked estimated: the fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 release prints $389,042 and $502,604 thousand directly, so they are disclosed rather than derived.
- The vertical carries the model's only seasonal factors: 0.9728 / 1.0013 / 1.0023 / 1.0237, indexed by MongoDB's own fiscal quarters, derived as the ratio of each quarter's Atlas revenue to a centred four-quarter moving average over 25 quarters and normalised to mean 1.0. The 5.1-point signal is nearly double the worst window-to-window spread inside any one quarter (2.9 points), and the sign is consistent where it matters: fiscal Q1 came in below its moving average in all five observations, from 0.957 to 0.985, and fiscal Q4 above it in all five, from 1.007 to 1.030.
- The shape is mechanical rather than fitted. Atlas is metered by time and MongoDB's fiscal Q1 is February-April: 89 days against 92 in the other three. Pure day count predicts 0.9781 / 1.0073 / 1.0073 / 1.0073, and dividing it out leaves residuals of 0.9946 / 0.9940 / 0.9950 / 1.0163, so the short quarter explains almost the whole Q1 discount and what remains is a single 1.6% November-January lift.
- Because seasonality is present the engine deseasonalises the basis quarter before the driver runs, so the 5.0% sequential-growth input is a DESEASONALISED TREND rate, not the raw sequential change. Raw sequential Atlas growth in the basis quarter was only 1.9%; deseasonalised it was 7.30%, against a trailing four-quarter mean of 6.67% and an eight-quarter mean of 6.33%.
- Atlas revenue includes Atlas Search and Vector Search. MongoDB breaks out no AI or vector-workload revenue at any granularity, so no such figure appears anywhere in this model.
- The 73.5% Atlas gross margin is ASSUMED, not disclosed. MongoDB publishes no cost of revenue split between Atlas and Enterprise Advanced; only the blended non-GAAP subscription margin of 77.06% is derivable. The 73.5% / 89.0% pair reproduces that blend, and the disclosed 74.49% company non-GAAP gross margin, to within 0.02 points each - it is the largest single assumption in this model.