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What has to happen in Services

Model as of

This page changes Services inside the complete MDB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MDB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $315.09 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $34M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own claim tested on its own terms: that MongoDB can grow durably and expand margin at the same time. The basis quarter did both - revenue up 25.2% year over year while non-GAAP operating margin rose to 17.9% from 15.9% - and the fiscal 2027 guide asks for 19.8% for the full year. This case holds the base revenue path exactly and moves only the margin ladder, five points on every vertical, to test what durable margin expansion alone is worth. What it does not achieve is any change in the revenue thesis: the case still lands fiscal 2027 revenue above the company's own guide, and it says nothing about whether the second-half deceleration in that guide is real.

Services

Basis quarter$21M
Final quarter$34M
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix3%

Professional services and training sold alongside the platform: 3.1% of revenue in the basis quarter and the one line MongoDB runs at a gross loss, at -5.0% on a non-GAAP basis and -23.5% on GAAP. It exists to get customers deployed rather than to earn, and MongoDB publishes no headcount, utilisation or day rate for it, so a base growth rate tied loosely to platform deployments is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2026 Q2 $19M Reported
2026 Q3 $19M Reported
2026 Q4 $22M Reported
2027 Q1 $21M Reported
Consulting and implementation services for platform deploymentsTraining and certification
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.5% a quarter is 14.8% annualised, below the 22.3% delivered; services trails subscription as deployments mature.
Services

Latest: $34M (2032Q1E)

Period Value
2021Q1 $5M
2021Q2 $6M
2021Q3 $7M
2021Q4 $7M
2022Q1 $7M
2022Q2 $7M
2022Q3 $9M
2022Q4 $8M
2023Q1 $11M
2023Q2 $12M
2023Q3 $13M
2023Q4 $13M
2024Q1 $14M
2024Q2 $14M
2024Q3 $15M
2024Q4 $13M
2025Q1 $14M
2025Q2 $14M
2025Q3 $17M
2025Q4 $17M
2026Q1 $18M
2026Q2 $19M
2026Q3 $19M
2026Q4 $22M
2027Q1 $21M
2027Q2E $22M
2027Q3E $23M
2027Q4E $24M
2028Q1E $24M
2028Q2E $25M
2028Q3E $26M
2028Q4E $26M
2029Q1E $27M
2029Q2E $27M
2029Q3E $28M
2029Q4E $29M
2030Q1E $29M
2030Q2E $30M
2030Q3E $30M
2030Q4E $31M
2031Q1E $31M
2031Q2E $32M
2031Q3E $33M
2031Q4E $33M
2032Q1E $34M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Services gross margin is one of the few product-level economics MongoDB actually discloses, because services revenue and services cost of revenue are separate income-statement lines: revenue of $21,478 thousand against non-GAAP services cost of revenue of $22,558 thousand (GAAP $26,534 less $3,976 of stock-based compensation) gives -5.03%.
  • Tested for seasonality and left ASEASONAL: a 6.6-point apparent signal against window-to-window spread of up to 15.5 points inside one fiscal quarter. On a line this small and this lumpy the shape is noise.
  • The line is projected to breakeven rather than to profit. MongoDB has never run services for margin and nothing in the filings suggests it intends to start; a loss-making line growing faster than the company average is a small drag on the blend.
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