← MA forward model

MA · Forward model · Value-Added Services · High End case

What has to happen in Value-Added Services

Model as of

This page changes Value-Added Services inside the complete MA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $776.06 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $10.80B 51% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $64.88B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Sachin Mehra on the 30 July 2026 call: FY2026 and Q3 net revenue growth at the high end of the low-double-digit range, currency-neutral, excluding inorganic, and higher within the range than April because of a stronger first half. Q3 2025 was $8,602M; 13–14% is about $9.7–9.8B. This case pays for that on the two disclosed lines. It does not assume Agent Pay or BVNK is a third vertical.

Value-Added Services

Basis quarter$3.83B
Final quarter$10.80B
Implied CAGR+23%
Final revenue mix51%

Security, authentication, engagement, insights, processing and gateway. $3,826M in the basis quarter, 41% of the company, +20% year over year and +18% currency-neutral. About 60% is network-linked. No customer count, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.42B Estimated
2025 Q4 $3.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.45B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.83B Reported
Security solutionsDigital and authenticationConsumer acquisition and engagementBusiness and market insightsProcessing, gateway, ACH and open finance
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 5% QoQ, below the 18% CN year-over-year. With network 3% it hits ~12% firm YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Value-Added Services

Latest: $10.80B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.82B
2025Q2 $3.19B
2025Q3 $3.42B
2025Q4 $3.89B
2026Q1 $3.45B
2026Q2 $3.83B
2026Q3E $4.08B
2026Q4E $4.34B
2027Q1E $4.60B
2027Q2E $4.87B
2027Q3E $5.15B
2027Q4E $5.44B
2028Q1E $5.74B
2028Q2E $6.05B
2028Q3E $6.37B
2028Q4E $6.70B
2029Q1E $7.04B
2029Q2E $7.40B
2029Q3E $7.77B
2029Q4E $8.15B
2030Q1E $8.55B
2030Q2E $8.96B
2030Q3E $9.39B
2030Q4E $9.84B
2031Q1E $10.31B
2031Q2E $10.80B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • About 60% of this line is network-linked, attached to switch transactions, tokens and card-not-present. That is mix inside VAS, not a third vertical. Agent Pay and BVNK are named on the calls and are not padded as delayed revenue.
  • Opening 5% is below the trailing 18% CN on purpose. Q4 is the seasonal peak ($3,886M in 2025 Q4, then $3,450M in 2026 Q1). 18% CN into 2027 is the bull case.
  • Margin 61.1% is the same company adjusted operating margin. Terminal 63% is a couple of points of software-like mix, not an 80% services fantasy.
  • Q3 2025 $3,423M is FY2025 VAS $13,315M less Q1 $2,818, Q2 $3,188 and Q4 $3,886. Q4 $3,886M is from the Q4 2025 slides.
MA model map

Explore another vertical