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MA · Forward model · Value-Added Services · Bear case

What has to happen in Value-Added Services

Model as of

This page changes Value-Added Services inside the complete MA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $248.49 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.36B 43% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $34.63B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Cross-border and GDV slow, rebates keep outrunning assessments, and interchange or network-fee regulation bites. VAS growth fades toward the network rate. What this case does NOT assume is a loss of the dual-network duopoly or a 2008-style volume collapse. It says 2026 was the peak mix-shift year.

Value-Added Services

Basis quarter$3.83B
Final quarter$4.36B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix43%

Security, authentication, engagement, insights, processing and gateway. $3,826M in the basis quarter, 41% of the company, +20% year over year and +18% currency-neutral. About 60% is network-linked. No customer count, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.42B Estimated
2025 Q4 $3.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.45B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.83B Reported
Security solutionsDigital and authenticationConsumer acquisition and engagementBusiness and market insightsProcessing, gateway, ACH and open finance
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 5% QoQ, below the 18% CN year-over-year. With network 3% it hits ~12% firm YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Value-Added Services

Latest: $4.36B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.82B
2025Q2 $3.19B
2025Q3 $3.42B
2025Q4 $3.89B
2026Q1 $3.45B
2026Q2 $3.83B
2026Q3E $3.90B
2026Q4E $3.96B
2027Q1E $4.02B
2027Q2E $4.07B
2027Q3E $4.11B
2027Q4E $4.15B
2028Q1E $4.18B
2028Q2E $4.21B
2028Q3E $4.24B
2028Q4E $4.26B
2029Q1E $4.28B
2029Q2E $4.29B
2029Q3E $4.31B
2029Q4E $4.32B
2030Q1E $4.33B
2030Q2E $4.34B
2030Q3E $4.35B
2030Q4E $4.35B
2031Q1E $4.36B
2031Q2E $4.36B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • About 60% of this line is network-linked, attached to switch transactions, tokens and card-not-present. That is mix inside VAS, not a third vertical. Agent Pay and BVNK are named on the calls and are not padded as delayed revenue.
  • Opening 5% is below the trailing 18% CN on purpose. Q4 is the seasonal peak ($3,886M in 2025 Q4, then $3,450M in 2026 Q1). 18% CN into 2027 is the bull case.
  • Margin 61.1% is the same company adjusted operating margin. Terminal 63% is a couple of points of software-like mix, not an 80% services fantasy.
  • Q3 2025 $3,423M is FY2025 VAS $13,315M less Q1 $2,818, Q2 $3,188 and Q4 $3,886. Q4 $3,886M is from the Q4 2025 slides.
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