MA · Forward model · Payment Network · High End case
What has to happen in Payment Network
Model as of
This page changes Payment Network inside the complete MA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Payment Network
Basis quarter$5.45B
Final quarter$10.52B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix49%
Assessments on gross dollar volume and fees for switching, net of rebates. $5,451M in the basis quarter, 59% of the company, +10% year over year. GDV $2.9T +8% local, switched transactions +9%, cross-border +12%. Rebates $5,997M grew 22%. Two volumes plus pricing plus rebates, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.18B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$4.92B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.95B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.45B
Reported
Domestic assessmentsCross-border assessmentsTransaction processingOther network assessments
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
3% QoQ. Q2 is seasonally stronger than Q1. 3% plus VAS 5% prints ~12% YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Payment Network
Latest: $10.52B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.43B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.95B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.18B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.92B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.95B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.45B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.67B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.89B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.11B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.33B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.56B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.79B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.25B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.49B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.73B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.98B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.24B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.50B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.77B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.04B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.61B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.90B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.52B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than GDV times a take rate, and that is the honest answer. Assessments are on volume, switching is a second count, and rebates of $5,997M sit in the same net line. Inventing a yield would look like Visa-unit models and would be fiction.
- Opening 3% is a Q3-on-Q2 trend, not the Q1-to-Q2 bounce. Combined with VAS +5% it prints about $9.63B in Q3, ~12% above Q3 2025 $8,602M — the low-double-digit floor. The high end is the named case.
- Margin 61.1% is the company adjusted operating margin. Mastercard does not publish category operating profit. Terminal 60% holds a network margin; mix shift lives on the VAS line.
- Q3 2025 $5,179M is FY2025 payment network $19,476M less Q1 $4,432, Q2 $4,945 and Q4 $4,920. Q4 $4,920M is Q4 net revenue $8,806M less disclosed VAS $3,886M.