← MA forward model

MA · Forward model · Value-Added Services · Bull case

What has to happen in Value-Added Services

Model as of

This page changes Value-Added Services inside the complete MA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,051.30 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $13.14B 53% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $76.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

VAS keeps an 18%-like clip into 2027 on security and authentication, and the network holds pricing. What this case does NOT reach is Mehra's high-end low-double-digit 2026 guide as a numbered print — that is the named case — and it does not treat Agent Pay as contracted revenue.

Value-Added Services

Basis quarter$3.83B
Final quarter$13.14B
Implied CAGR+28%
Final revenue mix53%

Security, authentication, engagement, insights, processing and gateway. $3,826M in the basis quarter, 41% of the company, +20% year over year and +18% currency-neutral. About 60% is network-linked. No customer count, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.42B Estimated
2025 Q4 $3.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.45B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.83B Reported
Security solutionsDigital and authenticationConsumer acquisition and engagementBusiness and market insightsProcessing, gateway, ACH and open finance
Sequential growth +5.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 5% QoQ, below the 18% CN year-over-year. With network 3% it hits ~12% firm YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Value-Added Services

Latest: $13.14B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.82B
2025Q2 $3.19B
2025Q3 $3.42B
2025Q4 $3.89B
2026Q1 $3.45B
2026Q2 $3.83B
2026Q3E $4.12B
2026Q4E $4.42B
2027Q1E $4.74B
2027Q2E $5.07B
2027Q3E $5.41B
2027Q4E $5.77B
2028Q1E $6.15B
2028Q2E $6.55B
2028Q3E $6.96B
2028Q4E $7.39B
2029Q1E $7.85B
2029Q2E $8.32B
2029Q3E $8.82B
2029Q4E $9.35B
2030Q1E $9.90B
2030Q2E $10.48B
2030Q3E $11.10B
2030Q4E $11.74B
2031Q1E $12.42B
2031Q2E $13.14B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • About 60% of this line is network-linked, attached to switch transactions, tokens and card-not-present. That is mix inside VAS, not a third vertical. Agent Pay and BVNK are named on the calls and are not padded as delayed revenue.
  • Opening 5% is below the trailing 18% CN on purpose. Q4 is the seasonal peak ($3,886M in 2025 Q4, then $3,450M in 2026 Q1). 18% CN into 2027 is the bull case.
  • Margin 61.1% is the same company adjusted operating margin. Terminal 63% is a couple of points of software-like mix, not an 80% services fantasy.
  • Q3 2025 $3,423M is FY2025 VAS $13,315M less Q1 $2,818, Q2 $3,188 and Q4 $3,886. Q4 $3,886M is from the Q4 2025 slides.
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