MA · Forward model · Payment Network · Bear case
What has to happen in Payment Network
Model as of
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Payment Network
Basis quarter$5.45B
Final quarter$5.76B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix57%
Assessments on gross dollar volume and fees for switching, net of rebates. $5,451M in the basis quarter, 59% of the company, +10% year over year. GDV $2.9T +8% local, switched transactions +9%, cross-border +12%. Rebates $5,997M grew 22%. Two volumes plus pricing plus rebates, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$5.18B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$4.92B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.95B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.45B
Reported
Domestic assessmentsCross-border assessmentsTransaction processingOther network assessments
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
3% QoQ. Q2 is seasonally stronger than Q1. 3% plus VAS 5% prints ~12% YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Payment Network
Latest: $5.76B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4.43B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.95B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.18B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.92B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.95B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.45B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.50B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.55B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.61B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.64B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.66B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.68B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.70B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.71B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.72B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.73B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.74B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.74B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.75B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.75B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.75B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.75B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.76B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.76B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.76B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than GDV times a take rate, and that is the honest answer. Assessments are on volume, switching is a second count, and rebates of $5,997M sit in the same net line. Inventing a yield would look like Visa-unit models and would be fiction.
- Opening 3% is a Q3-on-Q2 trend, not the Q1-to-Q2 bounce. Combined with VAS +5% it prints about $9.63B in Q3, ~12% above Q3 2025 $8,602M — the low-double-digit floor. The high end is the named case.
- Margin 61.1% is the company adjusted operating margin. Mastercard does not publish category operating profit. Terminal 60% holds a network margin; mix shift lives on the VAS line.
- Q3 2025 $5,179M is FY2025 payment network $19,476M less Q1 $4,432, Q2 $4,945 and Q4 $4,920. Q4 $4,920M is Q4 net revenue $8,806M less disclosed VAS $3,886M.