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MA · Forward model · Payment Network · Bull case

What has to happen in Payment Network

Model as of

This page changes Payment Network inside the complete MA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,051.30 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $11.61B 47% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $77.77B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

VAS keeps an 18%-like clip into 2027 on security and authentication, and the network holds pricing. What this case does NOT reach is Mehra's high-end low-double-digit 2026 guide as a numbered print — that is the named case — and it does not treat Agent Pay as contracted revenue.

Payment Network

Basis quarter$5.45B
Final quarter$11.61B
Implied CAGR+16%
Final revenue mix47%

Assessments on gross dollar volume and fees for switching, net of rebates. $5,451M in the basis quarter, 59% of the company, +10% year over year. GDV $2.9T +8% local, switched transactions +9%, cross-border +12%. Rebates $5,997M grew 22%. Two volumes plus pricing plus rebates, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported net line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $5.18B Estimated
2025 Q4 $4.92B Estimated
2026 Q1 $4.95B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.45B Reported
Domestic assessmentsCross-border assessmentsTransaction processingOther network assessments
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 3% QoQ. Q2 is seasonally stronger than Q1. 3% plus VAS 5% prints ~12% YoY in Q3, the guide floor.
Payment Network

Latest: $11.61B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $4.43B
2025Q2 $4.95B
2025Q3 $5.18B
2025Q4 $4.92B
2026Q1 $4.95B
2026Q2 $5.45B
2026Q3E $5.70B
2026Q4E $5.95B
2027Q1E $6.20B
2027Q2E $6.46B
2027Q3E $6.72B
2027Q4E $6.99B
2028Q1E $7.26B
2028Q2E $7.54B
2028Q3E $7.83B
2028Q4E $8.13B
2029Q1E $8.43B
2029Q2E $8.74B
2029Q3E $9.06B
2029Q4E $9.39B
2030Q1E $9.73B
2030Q2E $10.09B
2030Q3E $10.45B
2030Q4E $10.83B
2031Q1E $11.21B
2031Q2E $11.61B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than GDV times a take rate, and that is the honest answer. Assessments are on volume, switching is a second count, and rebates of $5,997M sit in the same net line. Inventing a yield would look like Visa-unit models and would be fiction.
  • Opening 3% is a Q3-on-Q2 trend, not the Q1-to-Q2 bounce. Combined with VAS +5% it prints about $9.63B in Q3, ~12% above Q3 2025 $8,602M — the low-double-digit floor. The high end is the named case.
  • Margin 61.1% is the company adjusted operating margin. Mastercard does not publish category operating profit. Terminal 60% holds a network margin; mix shift lives on the VAS line.
  • Q3 2025 $5,179M is FY2025 payment network $19,476M less Q1 $4,432, Q2 $4,945 and Q4 $4,920. Q4 $4,920M is Q4 net revenue $8,806M less disclosed VAS $3,886M.
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