LMND · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Lemonade reports ONE GAAP segment, personal property and casualty. The five product lines here are NOT reported as revenue: their revenue is apportioned, and that is the first thing to know about this page. What IS published, quarterly and for twelve quarters, is the IR finance dashboard's per-product breakdown of IN FORCE PREMIUM, PREMIUM PER CUSTOMER and GROSS LOSS RATIO for homeowners multi-peril, pet, car, Europe and other. Those rows carry two checks that make them usable: the per-product in-force premium sums exactly to the stated total in every quarter, and the per-product gross loss ratios, weighted by in-force premium, reproduce Lemonade's stated consolidated gross loss ratio to within a point in every quarter. Net earned premium is then apportioned across the five lines on that in-force premium mix. The apportionment assumes every product earns and cedes premium in the same proportion to its in-force book, which is not exactly true - reinsurance quota shares and earn patterns differ by product - so a line whose premium is written more heavily in one part of the year is slightly misplaced. A sixth vertical carries the rest of revenue: ceding commission income, net investment income and commission and other income, which are disclosed as line items, belong to no product, and are what makes the six sum to reported total revenue. MARGINS are derived rather than invented. Each product's gross loss ratio is disclosed, so the five margins are set as one minus that ratio, scaled by a single factor chosen so they weight-average back to the $113.2M of gross profit Lemonade reports - the same technique used for the ORCL offering margins. Homeowners at 40.4% and pet at 18.7% are therefore a consequence of the disclosed 44% and 74% loss ratios, not a judgement about either. The corporate layer then carries sales and marketing, technology development and general and administrative at 52.65% of revenue, which reconciles gross profit to the reported loss before income taxes. Two things this model does NOT capture: the driver is policies times net premium per policy, and Lemonade's own customer count is unique households, so the five policy counts sum to 3.48M against 3.31M customers - the gap is the cross-sell the strategy is built on. And premium per policy here is NET of reinsurance, about 70% of the gross figure Lemonade publishes, because the vertical revenue is net earned premium. Three things to hold in mind before reading the fair values. First, the terminal margins on the five product lines are NOT purely underwriting. Each is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points standing in for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - which is the entire profitability thesis here - has nowhere else to live. Without it this model would show the loss widening forever, which contradicts both the guidance and the arithmetic of a business whose costs are mostly fixed. Read each basis margin as disclosed economics and each terminal margin as economics plus an assumption. Second, and following from the first, this model is on a GAAP-ish basis: it reconciles to the reported loss before income taxes, so it does NOT show a positive quarter in Q4 2026. That is not a disagreement with management. Lemonade's promised first positive quarter is ADJUSTED EBITDA, which excludes roughly $24M a quarter of stock-based compensation, and the base case here has the GAAP operating loss narrowing from 13% of revenue to breakeven around 2030 - the same direction, on a stricter measure, with share count held flat. Third, base lands 2026 at $1.196B of revenue against a guide of $1.214-1.220B, about 1.5% light, because the model holds each product's net-to-gross premium ratio fixed while Lemonade's reinsurance transition is still raising retention. The gap is left visible rather than tuned away.
The AI claims argument turns into underwriting margin, and Car becomes the third large line. Lemonade's LAE ratio has gone from 13% to a record-low 5% against an industry average near 9%, with record lows in homeowners, car and pet in the same quarter - and Car, where claims are hardest, hit 7%. This case carries that cost advantage into the loss ratios rather than treating it as a one-quarter print, and lets Car compound faster as states open. What it does NOT assume is any improvement in pet's loss ratio beyond base, which is the line that got worse this quarter and is about to become the largest book.
Latest: $1.21B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $137M |
| 2024Q4 | $149M |
| 2025Q1 | $151M |
| 2025Q2 | $164M |
| 2025Q3 | $194M |
| 2025Q4 | $228M |
| 2026Q1 | $258M |
| 2026Q2 | $294M |
| 2026Q3E | $315M |
| 2026Q4E | $337M |
| 2027Q1E | $361M |
| 2027Q2E | $388M |
| 2027Q3E | $417M |
| 2027Q4E | $448M |
| 2028Q1E | $482M |
| 2028Q2E | $518M |
| 2028Q3E | $557M |
| 2028Q4E | $599M |
| 2029Q1E | $644M |
| 2029Q2E | $692M |
| 2029Q3E | $744M |
| 2029Q4E | $798M |
| 2030Q1E | $857M |
| 2030Q2E | $919M |
| 2030Q3E | $985M |
| 2030Q4E | $1.06B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.13B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.21B |
What drives each segment
Homeowners multi-peril
Subscribers × ARPURenters, condo and home under one multi-peril book, and still the largest line at $554M of in-force premium. It is the front door: a renters policy at $240 a year is the cheapest thing Lemonade sells and the thing almost every customer buys first, which is why premium per policy has FALLEN for six straight quarters while the book grew. The economics have gone the other way - the gross loss ratio was 82% in the first quarter of 2025 and 44% in the basis quarter, the best of any product. This line is the acquisition engine and, now, the profit engine too.
Latest: $145M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $53M |
| 2024Q4 | $54M |
| 2025Q1 | $53M |
| 2025Q2 | $54M |
| 2025Q3 | $64M |
| 2025Q4 | $77M |
| 2026Q1 | $86M |
| 2026Q2 | $97M |
| 2026Q3E | $100M |
| 2026Q4E | $102M |
| 2027Q1E | $105M |
| 2027Q2E | $107M |
| 2027Q3E | $110M |
| 2027Q4E | $112M |
| 2028Q1E | $115M |
| 2028Q2E | $117M |
| 2028Q3E | $120M |
| 2028Q4E | $122M |
| 2029Q1E | $125M |
| 2029Q2E | $127M |
| 2029Q3E | $130M |
| 2029Q4E | $132M |
| 2030Q1E | $134M |
| 2030Q2E | $137M |
| 2030Q3E | $139M |
| 2030Q4E | $141M |
| 2031Q1E | $143M |
| 2031Q2E | $145M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Premium per policy has fallen every quarter for two years - $266 to $240 - while the policy count grew 40%. That is the renters mix winning inside the multi-peril book, and it is the reason this line's revenue grows slower than its customer count.
- The gross loss ratio is disclosed for this line every quarter and it has roughly halved: 82%, 60%, 51%, 39%, 49%, 44%. The margin below is derived from that, not chosen.
- This is the cross-sell doorway. Lemonade's stated strategy is renters first, then pet, car and life as the household grows, so weakness here shows up in the other four lines a year later.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.
Pet
Subscribers × ARPUAbout to overtake homeowners: $543M of in-force premium against $554M, growing 55% year over year while homeowners grew 6%. Accident, illness and diagnostics for dogs and cats, at $839 a policy - three and a half times a renters policy. It is the best cross-sell Lemonade has and the worst loss ratio of the three large lines at 74%, which went UP in the basis quarter. Pet is where the growth is and where the underwriting question is.
Latest: $461M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $27M |
| 2024Q4 | $30M |
| 2025Q1 | $32M |
| 2025Q2 | $36M |
| 2025Q3 | $48M |
| 2025Q4 | $64M |
| 2026Q1 | $78M |
| 2026Q2 | $95M |
| 2026Q3E | $106M |
| 2026Q4E | $116M |
| 2027Q1E | $128M |
| 2027Q2E | $140M |
| 2027Q3E | $153M |
| 2027Q4E | $167M |
| 2028Q1E | $182M |
| 2028Q2E | $198M |
| 2028Q3E | $214M |
| 2028Q4E | $232M |
| 2029Q1E | $250M |
| 2029Q2E | $269M |
| 2029Q3E | $290M |
| 2029Q4E | $311M |
| 2030Q1E | $333M |
| 2030Q2E | $356M |
| 2030Q3E | $381M |
| 2030Q4E | $406M |
| 2031Q1E | $433M |
| 2031Q2E | $461M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Pet passes homeowners as the largest line within a quarter or two on the current rates, and it does so at nearly three times the loss ratio - 74% against 44% - which is why the blended gross loss ratio has stopped falling even as homeowners improves.
- Its loss ratio went UP in the basis quarter, from 69% to 74%, the only large line that deteriorated. Management attributes group improvements to instant claim rates in Pet and Renters, so this is a frequency and severity question rather than a handling-cost one.
- Premium per policy has risen every quarter for two years, $712 to $839, which is rate and mix rather than volume - the opposite pattern to homeowners.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.
Car
Subscribers × ARPUThe line management is pushing hardest and the one that has to work for the story to change shape. $239M of in-force premium, up 59% year over year, at $2,089 a policy - nine times a renters policy, so a single car customer is worth more than eight renters. Lemonade is adding states rather than saturating them, and it says growth spend will rise sequentially behind Car. The gross loss ratio has gone from 88% to 61% in six quarters and the LAE ratio hit a record low 7% - management's cleanest evidence that AI claims handling works on the hardest line.
Latest: $472M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $13M |
| 2024Q4 | $13M |
| 2025Q1 | $14M |
| 2025Q2 | $16M |
| 2025Q3 | $20M |
| 2025Q4 | $27M |
| 2026Q1 | $34M |
| 2026Q2 | $42M |
| 2026Q3E | $49M |
| 2026Q4E | $56M |
| 2027Q1E | $65M |
| 2027Q2E | $75M |
| 2027Q3E | $86M |
| 2027Q4E | $98M |
| 2028Q1E | $112M |
| 2028Q2E | $127M |
| 2028Q3E | $144M |
| 2028Q4E | $162M |
| 2029Q1E | $183M |
| 2029Q2E | $205M |
| 2029Q3E | $230M |
| 2029Q4E | $256M |
| 2030Q1E | $286M |
| 2030Q2E | $317M |
| 2030Q3E | $351M |
| 2030Q4E | $388M |
| 2031Q1E | $428M |
| 2031Q2E | $472M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Nine times the premium of a renters policy and the fastest grower, but only 114,409 policies. Car is a state-by-state licensing rollout, not a saturation story, so the constraint is regulatory footprint and growth spend rather than demand.
- The loss ratio is volatile in a way the others are not: 88%, 82%, 76%, 40%, 74%, 61%. That 40% quarter was prior-period development, not a step change, and the model uses the basis quarter rather than the best one.
- Management said growth spend rises sequentially in the third quarter behind Car and seasonal renters strength, so the near-term cost of this line's growth sits in the corporate layer, not here.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.
Europe
Subscribers × ARPUThe UK, Germany, the Netherlands and France under one pan-EU licence: $74M of in-force premium, up 72% year over year off a base small enough that the growth rate flatters it. Premium per policy is $191, below even US renters, because the book is mostly contents and liability cover for young urban renters. The loss ratio is 71% and improving from 91% a year ago. At 5% of in-force premium this is optionality on the same software working in a second regulatory regime, not a profit centre.
Latest: $65M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $2M |
| 2024Q4 | $3M |
| 2025Q1 | $3M |
| 2025Q2 | $4M |
| 2025Q3 | $6M |
| 2025Q4 | $9M |
| 2026Q1 | $11M |
| 2026Q2 | $13M |
| 2026Q3E | $14M |
| 2026Q4E | $16M |
| 2027Q1E | $17M |
| 2027Q2E | $19M |
| 2027Q3E | $21M |
| 2027Q4E | $23M |
| 2028Q1E | $25M |
| 2028Q2E | $27M |
| 2028Q3E | $29M |
| 2028Q4E | $32M |
| 2029Q1E | $34M |
| 2029Q2E | $37M |
| 2029Q3E | $40M |
| 2029Q4E | $43M |
| 2030Q1E | $46M |
| 2030Q2E | $50M |
| 2030Q3E | $53M |
| 2030Q4E | $57M |
| 2031Q1E | $61M |
| 2031Q2E | $65M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Four countries on one pan-EU licence, so incremental country launches carry regulatory cost but not a new licence. That is why the model lets policy adds keep compounding rather than capping them at today's rate.
- The loss ratio has improved from 91% to 71% in five quarters but remains the second worst of the five lines, and the base is small enough that a single catastrophe quarter would move it materially.
- At $191 of premium per policy this is the cheapest product Lemonade sells anywhere, so Europe adds customers faster than it adds premium - the mirror image of Car.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.
Other, including Life
Subscribers × ARPUEverything else, principally Life, at $24M of in-force premium - under 2% of the book. Premium per policy is $1,148, the second highest after Car, because term life is sold in large annual amounts to a small number of customers. It is carried as its own line because Lemonade publishes it separately, not because it moves the answer: a doubling here is worth less than a two-point move in the pet loss ratio.
Latest: $25M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $1M |
| 2024Q4 | $1M |
| 2025Q1 | $1M |
| 2025Q2 | $2M |
| 2025Q3 | $2M |
| 2025Q4 | $3M |
| 2026Q1 | $4M |
| 2026Q2 | $4M |
| 2026Q3E | $5M |
| 2026Q4E | $5M |
| 2027Q1E | $6M |
| 2027Q2E | $6M |
| 2027Q3E | $7M |
| 2027Q4E | $8M |
| 2028Q1E | $8M |
| 2028Q2E | $9M |
| 2028Q3E | $10M |
| 2028Q4E | $11M |
| 2029Q1E | $12M |
| 2029Q2E | $13M |
| 2029Q3E | $14M |
| 2029Q4E | $15M |
| 2030Q1E | $17M |
| 2030Q2E | $18M |
| 2030Q3E | $20M |
| 2030Q4E | $21M |
| 2031Q1E | $23M |
| 2031Q2E | $25M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Principally term life, disclosed by Lemonade as a separate in-force premium line but never with its own loss ratio, so this line carries the consolidated gross loss ratio rather than one of its own.
- Under 2% of in-force premium and about 1.4% of revenue. It is carried because Lemonade publishes it, and folding it into another line would misstate that line's premium per policy.
- Premium per policy of $1,148 is second only to Car, which is what a small book of annual term-life premiums looks like next to monthly renters cover.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.
Ceding commission, investment and other income
Growth pathNot a product - the rest of the income statement. Ceding commission Lemonade earns for handing premium to reinsurers, investment income on the $1.16B it holds, and commission and other income. $42.4M in the basis quarter, and the only line here that is SHRINKING: it was $54.5M three quarters ago, because the reinsurance transition retains more premium and therefore earns less ceding commission. That is the same transition that made revenue grow 79% while gross earned premium grew 32%, so this line falling is the price of the product lines rising.
Latest: $43M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $41M |
| 2024Q4 | $48M |
| 2025Q1 | $47M |
| 2025Q2 | $52M |
| 2025Q3 | $54M |
| 2025Q4 | $49M |
| 2026Q1 | $45M |
| 2026Q2 | $42M |
| 2026Q3E | $42M |
| 2026Q4E | $41M |
| 2027Q1E | $40M |
| 2027Q2E | $40M |
| 2027Q3E | $40M |
| 2027Q4E | $40M |
| 2028Q1E | $40M |
| 2028Q2E | $40M |
| 2028Q3E | $40M |
| 2028Q4E | $40M |
| 2029Q1E | $40M |
| 2029Q2E | $40M |
| 2029Q3E | $40M |
| 2029Q4E | $41M |
| 2030Q1E | $41M |
| 2030Q2E | $41M |
| 2030Q3E | $42M |
| 2030Q4E | $42M |
| 2031Q1E | $42M |
| 2031Q2E | $43M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line exists so the six verticals sum to Lemonade's reported total revenue. The five product lines carry net earned premium only; total revenue also carries ceding commission, investment income and commission income.
- It has fallen from $54.5M to $42.4M over three quarters as Lemonade retained more premium and ceded less. A reader who models the product lines growing without this line falling has double-counted the reinsurance transition.
- Net investment income has been almost flat at $9.2M to $9.8M for eight quarters on a $1.16B portfolio. It is the most predictable number on this page and the least interesting.
- If the intention is to value Lemonade as an underwriter, this is the line to zero out. It is 14% of revenue and none of it is premium.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter - the growth spend that is still rising
- Jul 29, 2026 sequentially in Q3 as we seek to increase investment behind Car and capitalize on the seasonal strength of Renters.
- Jul 29, 2026 Some observers have noted that growth spend has recently grown faster than IFP, but actually this is an artifact of our intentional halving of growth spend in 2023, a period during which inflationary pressures shrank the opportunities for profitable growth.
Q2 2026 finance dashboard - what the headline loss ratio contains
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter - the claims-cost advantage, quantified
- Jul 29, 2026 This quarter, our LAE ratio declined to a record low 5% as IFP reached $1.43 billion.
- Jul 29, 2026 The gains have been broad-based, with record-low LAE ratios across Homeowners Multi-Peril, Car, and Pet during the quarter. The gains are particularly notable in Car, where claims are inherently more complex than our other lines of business.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter - cheaper capital behind the growth
Schreiber case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Schreiber column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter - the promise, with a number on it
- Jul 29, 2026 We steadily progress towards our first Adj. EBITDA positive quarter, which we continue to expect in Q4 2026.
- Jul 29, 2026 We continue to expect positive Adj. EBITDA in the fourth quarter of this year, with our third quarter and full year guidance implying fourth quarter Adj. EBITDA of approximately $8 million.
Q2 2026 shareholder letter - the compounding behind it
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | -$40M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $4.38B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $269M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 2.2x |
| Terminal value | $9.86B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $5.85B |
| Enterprise value | $5.81B |
| Net cash | $828M |
| Equity value | $6.64B |
| Shares | 0.08B |
| Fair value per share | $86.24 |
| Against the current price of $53.93 | +60% |
11% on a loss-making insurer that nonetheless holds $1.16B of investments and caps its catastrophe exposure by reinsurance - lower than a pre-revenue name, higher than a profitable one. The exit multiple is the most important number on this page and the least mechanical: 94% of the base fair value is terminal value. 1.75x sits above the roughly 1.4x a mature personal-lines direct insurer like Progressive carries, because a Lemonade still growing mid-teens with a structurally lower claims-handling cost should earn a premium to it - and below the 2.53x the market pays today, because today's multiple is paid for 32% in-force premium growth that will not still be running in 2031. Read it honestly: at 1.75x on the 2.2% terminal EBITDA margin this model projects, the implied exit is about 80x EBITDA, which means the multiple is carrying the margin expansion that happens AFTER the horizon. That is the single biggest judgement here, and it is the slider to move first.
Read the other way round: at $53.93 the market is paying 1.3x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Homeowners multi-peril | Pet | Car | Europe | Other, including Life | Ceding commission, investment and other income | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $100M | $106M | $49M | $14M | $5M | $42M | $315M | +62% | -$30M | $4M | -$35M | +51 | -$34M |
| 2026 Q4E | $102M | $116M | $56M | $16M | $5M | $41M | $337M | +48% | -$28M | $4M | -$33M | +38 | -$31M |
| 2027 Q1E | $105M | $128M | $65M | $17M | $6M | $40M | $361M | +40% | -$26M | $5M | -$31M | +32 | -$28M |
| 2027 Q2E | $107M | $140M | $75M | $19M | $6M | $40M | $388M | +32% | -$23M | $5M | -$28M | +24 | -$25M |
| 2027 Q3E | $110M | $153M | $86M | $21M | $7M | $40M | $417M | +32% | -$20M | $5M | -$25M | +26 | -$22M |
| 2027 Q4E | $112M | $167M | $98M | $23M | $8M | $40M | $448M | +33% | -$16M | $6M | -$22M | +28 | -$19M |
| 2028 Q1E | $115M | $182M | $112M | $25M | $8M | $40M | $482M | +33% | -$12M | $6M | -$18M | +30 | -$15M |
| 2028 Q2E | $117M | $198M | $127M | $27M | $9M | $40M | $518M | +34% | -$8M | $6M | -$14M | +31 | -$12M |
| 2028 Q3E | $120M | $214M | $144M | $29M | $10M | $40M | $557M | +34% | -$3M | $7M | -$10M | +32 | -$8M |
| 2028 Q4E | $122M | $232M | $162M | $32M | $11M | $40M | $599M | +34% | $2M | $7M | -$5M | +33 | -$4M |
| 2029 Q1E | $125M | $250M | $183M | $34M | $12M | $40M | $644M | +34% | $7M | $7M | -$44979 | +34 | -$33758 |
| 2029 Q2E | $127M | $269M | $205M | $37M | $13M | $40M | $692M | +34% | $14M | $8M | $4M | +34 | $3M |
| 2029 Q3E | $130M | $290M | $230M | $40M | $14M | $40M | $744M | +33% | $20M | $8M | $9M | +35 | $7M |
| 2029 Q4E | $132M | $311M | $256M | $43M | $15M | $41M | $798M | +33% | $27M | $9M | $15M | +35 | $10M |
| 2030 Q1E | $134M | $333M | $286M | $46M | $17M | $41M | $857M | +33% | $35M | $9M | $20M | +35 | $14M |
| 2030 Q2E | $137M | $356M | $317M | $50M | $18M | $41M | $919M | +33% | $43M | $10M | $26M | +36 | $17M |
| 2030 Q3E | $139M | $381M | $351M | $53M | $20M | $42M | $985M | +33% | $52M | $11M | $33M | +36 | $21M |
| 2030 Q4E | $141M | $406M | $388M | $57M | $21M | $42M | $1.06B | +32% | $62M | $11M | $40M | +36 | $25M |
| 2031 Q1E | $143M | $433M | $428M | $61M | $23M | $42M | $1.13B | +32% | $72M | $12M | $47M | +36 | $29M |
| 2031 Q2E | $145M | $461M | $472M | $65M | $25M | $43M | $1.21B | +32% | $83M | $13M | $55M | +36 | $33M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | all | $73.75 | First build, on the 2026 Q2 basis, from the intake brief at data/models/intake/lmnd.json. |
| 2026-08-24 | valuation.exitEvRevenue, scenarios[].exitEvRevenue | — | Exit multiple cut from 2.5x to 1.75x. The 2.5x was anchored on Lemonade's own current EV/revenue, which made the terminal partly circular, and implied 114x the terminal EBITDA the model projects. 1.75x is reasoned from mature personal-lines comparables instead. |