LMND · Forward model · Homeowners multi-peril · Bull case
What has to happen in Homeowners multi-peril
Model as of
This page changes Homeowners multi-peril inside the complete LMND model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Homeowners multi-peril
Renters, condo and home under one multi-peril book, and still the largest line at $554M of in-force premium. It is the front door: a renters policy at $240 a year is the cheapest thing Lemonade sells and the thing almost every customer buys first, which is why premium per policy has FALLEN for six straight quarters while the book grew. The economics have gone the other way - the gross loss ratio was 82% in the first quarter of 2025 and 44% in the basis quarter, the best of any product. This line is the acquisition engine and, now, the profit engine too.
Latest: $145M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $53M |
| 2024Q4 | $54M |
| 2025Q1 | $53M |
| 2025Q2 | $54M |
| 2025Q3 | $64M |
| 2025Q4 | $77M |
| 2026Q1 | $86M |
| 2026Q2 | $97M |
| 2026Q3E | $100M |
| 2026Q4E | $102M |
| 2027Q1E | $105M |
| 2027Q2E | $107M |
| 2027Q3E | $110M |
| 2027Q4E | $112M |
| 2028Q1E | $115M |
| 2028Q2E | $117M |
| 2028Q3E | $120M |
| 2028Q4E | $122M |
| 2029Q1E | $125M |
| 2029Q2E | $127M |
| 2029Q3E | $130M |
| 2029Q4E | $132M |
| 2030Q1E | $134M |
| 2030Q2E | $137M |
| 2030Q3E | $139M |
| 2030Q4E | $141M |
| 2031Q1E | $143M |
| 2031Q2E | $145M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Premium per policy has fallen every quarter for two years - $266 to $240 - while the policy count grew 40%. That is the renters mix winning inside the multi-peril book, and it is the reason this line's revenue grows slower than its customer count.
- The gross loss ratio is disclosed for this line every quarter and it has roughly halved: 82%, 60%, 51%, 39%, 49%, 44%. The margin below is derived from that, not chosen.
- This is the cross-sell doorway. Lemonade's stated strategy is renters first, then pet, car and life as the household grows, so weakness here shows up in the other four lines a year later.
- The terminal margin on this line is NOT purely underwriting. It is a seasoned loss ratio plus about 27 points that stand for Lemonade's fixed cost base being spread across a larger book. The engine holds sales and marketing, technology and general and administrative at a constant 52.65% of revenue, so operating leverage - the entire profitability thesis - has nowhere else to live. Read the basis margin as disclosed economics and the terminal margin as economics plus an assumption.