HIMS · Forward model · United States · Bear case
What has to happen in United States
Model as of
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United States
Basis quarter$622M
Final quarter$958M
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix66%
The domestic platform: sexual health and hair loss as the mature, high-retention base, weight loss as the volume engine after the pivot to branded GLP-1s, and dermatology, mental health, testosterone, menopause and Labs stacked on top. Hims does not publish revenue by specialty, so none of those appear as lines here. What the company does publish is the platform base and what the US earns from it, and that is what this vertical projects: subscribers times the US revenue each subscriber produces.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$544M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$554M
Reported
2026 Q1
$530M
Reported
2026 Q2
$622M
Reported
Sexual health (Hims) — the original high-margin specialtyHair loss and dermatology, men's and women'sWeight loss, now branded GLP-1s rather than compoundedMental health, testosterone and hormone health, menopauseLabs by Hims — biomarker panels and the Galleri add-on
Subscribers
2.9M
2.4% of a 120.0M addressable base
2,891K at 2026 Q2, up 19% — the disclosed platform base. Hims does not split subscribers by geography, so this is company-wide.
Addressable subscribers
120.0M
the S-curve ceiling
120M adults across the markets Hims now operates in. A ceiling on the base, not a forecast: today's 2.9M is 2.4% of it.
Net adds
110K/qtr
ramping toward 170K/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
110K a quarter against 452K added over the last four quarters — Q2's +307K included subscribers acquired with Eucalyptus, not sold.
Net-add ceiling
170K/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
170K a quarter. New specialties add subscribers without adding acquisition channels, and marketing is already 34% of revenue.
ARPU
$71.70/mo
drifting +1.0% per quarter, floor $60.00
$71.70/month is US revenue divided by the whole platform base — both figures disclosed. It is a US yield, not a US ARPU.
Non-subscriber revenue
$0/qtr
growing 0.0% per quarter
Zero. Every dollar of US revenue here comes through the subscriber base; wholesale is under 2% of revenue and is not modelled separately.
United States
Latest: $958M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $579M |
| 2025Q2 | $537M |
| 2025Q3 | $544M |
| 2025Q4 | $554M |
| 2026Q1 | $530M |
| 2026Q2 | $622M |
| 2026Q3E | $639M |
| 2026Q4E | $656M |
| 2027Q1E | $674M |
| 2027Q2E | $691M |
| 2027Q3E | $709M |
| 2027Q4E | $726M |
| 2028Q1E | $744M |
| 2028Q2E | $761M |
| 2028Q3E | $778M |
| 2028Q4E | $796M |
| 2029Q1E | $813M |
| 2029Q2E | $830M |
| 2029Q3E | $846M |
| 2029Q4E | $863M |
| 2030Q1E | $879M |
| 2030Q2E | $896M |
| 2030Q3E | $912M |
| 2030Q4E | $927M |
| 2031Q1E | $943M |
| 2031Q2E | $958M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment EBITDA margins in this model are OURS, not disclosure. Hims reports one consolidated income statement and no segment profitability at all, so 22% here is a pre-corporate contribution margin — gross margin less marketing and operations — chosen so that the blended figure less corporate overhead reproduces the 8% Adjusted EBITDA margin the company actually reported in 2026 Q2.
- The subscription driver multiplies the WHOLE platform base by the revenue the US earns per subscriber. That is deliberate: splitting 2,891K subscribers into domestic and international would invent a disclosure Hims has never made. The consequence is that international subscriber growth dilutes the US yield rather than raising it, which is why the ARPU drift is 1% a quarter against MRPAS growth of 21% year over year.
- Gross margin fell 12.6 points year over year in Q2 2026, 76.4% to 63.8%, as the mix moved to branded GLP-1s bought from manufacturers rather than compounded in-house. The margin path here assumes that erosion has largely happened and that scale plus the older high-margin specialties pull the contribution margin back up. If branded weight loss keeps taking share inside the mix, the 30% terminal is too high.
- Labs and diagnostics sit inside this line and are not separable. Hims discloses no Labs revenue and no attach rate, so a reader who wants to size it has to do it through this vertical's ARPU drift, not through a line of its own.
- Capex intensity of 4% is the reported ratio — $32.3M of purchases of property, equipment and intangibles on $753.2M of revenue in Q2 2026 — applied to the segment because there is no segment capex disclosure.