HIMS · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Hims & Hers publishes ONE income statement and exactly one revenue split: United States and Rest of the World. It does not report revenue by specialty, by brand or by product, and management's colour — that Hers is over 40% of US revenue and on track for $1B, that weight loss is the largest growth engine, that testosterone is close to becoming the sixth US specialty at a $100M run rate — is commentary, not disclosure. Those statements shape the theses and the drivers here; none of them is turned into a line of revenue, because doing so would invent a split the company has refused to make. Every quarter of both verticals reconciles exactly to the consolidated revenue this site stores. The 2025 Q3 split is the only estimated point: the company reported Online and Wholesale revenue that quarter and only moved to the geographic split with Q4 2025, so 2025 Q3 is derived as the full-year figures less the other three quarters — arithmetic on disclosed numbers, but not a split the company published. What is assumed throughout is the COST side. Hims discloses no segment margins, no segment capex and no segment overhead, so every economics input in this file is ours: vertical EBITDA margins are pre-corporate contribution margins calibrated so the blend less an 11% corporate overhead reproduces the reported 8% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and capex intensity is the consolidated ratio applied to both segments. Read the margins as a hypothesis about where profit sits, not as a measurement of it.
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Latest: $1.46B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $586M |
| 2025Q2 | $545M |
| 2025Q3 | $599M |
| 2025Q4 | $618M |
| 2026Q1 | $608M |
| 2026Q2 | $753M |
| 2026Q3E | $826M |
| 2026Q4E | $897M |
| 2027Q1E | $962M |
| 2027Q2E | $1.02B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.11B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.15B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.18B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.21B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.24B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.26B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.31B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.33B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.35B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.37B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.42B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.44B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.46B |
Where each case comes from
Dudum 2030 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Dudum 2030 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the company has actually said
- Aug 10, 2026 Long-term targets restated: at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B Adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
- Aug 10, 2026 Full year 2026 guidance: revenue of $3.1B to $3.3B and Adjusted EBITDA of $275M to $325M.
- Aug 10, 2026 Domestic revenue growth accelerated to 16% year-over-year, and our international business grew more than 17-fold, strengthened by the close of our Eucalyptus acquisition in June.
- Feb 23, 2026 Full year 2025 revenue of $2,347.6M, split $2,213.6M in the United States and $134.0M in the Rest of the World.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 14.0% a year with an exit multiple of 1.4x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $209M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $5.70B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $447M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 1.4x |
| Terminal value | $7.98B |
| Discounted at 14.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $4.15B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 95% |
| Enterprise value | $4.36B |
| Net cash | $219M |
| Equity value | $4.57B |
| Shares | 0.23B |
| Fair value per share | $19.74 |
| Against the deployed price of $29.79, as of | −34% |
2.0x terminal revenue against about 2.9x trailing at a $33.54 snapshot price, and roughly 14x the terminal EBITDA this model produces. A consumer subscription platform that buys its drugs from manufacturers and carries open regulatory exposure is not a software multiple. This input moves the answer more than any other.
Read the other way round: at $29.79 the market is paying 2.2x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | United States | Rest of the World | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $639M | $187M | $826M | +38% | $15M | $34M | −$18M | +36 | −$18M |
| 2026 Q4E | $656M | $241M | $897M | +45% | $18M | $36M | −$18M | +43 | −$17M |
| 2027 Q1E | $674M | $289M | $962M | +58% | $22M | $38M | −$16M | +57 | −$15M |
| 2027 Q2E | $691M | $329M | $1.02B | +35% | $27M | $40M | −$13M | +34 | −$11M |
| 2027 Q3E | $709M | $361M | $1.07B | +30% | $33M | $42M | −$8M | +29 | −$7M |
| 2027 Q4E | $726M | $386M | $1.11B | +24% | $40M | $43M | −$3M | +24 | −$2M |
| 2028 Q1E | $744M | $405M | $1.15B | +19% | $47M | $43M | $3M | +20 | $2M |
| 2028 Q2E | $761M | $420M | $1.18B | +16% | $54M | $44M | $8M | +16 | $6M |
| 2028 Q3E | $778M | $432M | $1.21B | +13% | $60M | $45M | $13M | +14 | $10M |
| 2028 Q4E | $796M | $442M | $1.24B | +11% | $67M | $45M | $18M | +13 | $13M |
| 2029 Q1E | $813M | $450M | $1.26B | +10% | $73M | $46M | $23M | +12 | $16M |
| 2029 Q2E | $830M | $457M | $1.29B | +9% | $79M | $46M | $28M | +11 | $19M |
| 2029 Q3E | $846M | $463M | $1.31B | +8% | $85M | $47M | $33M | +11 | $21M |
| 2029 Q4E | $863M | $468M | $1.33B | +8% | $90M | $47M | $37M | +10 | $23M |
| 2030 Q1E | $879M | $474M | $1.35B | +7% | $96M | $48M | $41M | +10 | $25M |
| 2030 Q2E | $896M | $479M | $1.37B | +7% | $101M | $48M | $45M | +10 | $26M |
| 2030 Q3E | $912M | $484M | $1.40B | +7% | $105M | $49M | $48M | +10 | $28M |
| 2030 Q4E | $927M | $488M | $1.42B | +6% | $110M | $49M | $52M | +10 | $29M |
| 2031 Q1E | $943M | $493M | $1.44B | +6% | $114M | $50M | $55M | +10 | $29M |
| 2031 Q2E | $958M | $498M | $1.46B | +6% | $118M | $50M | $58M | +10 | $30M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | — | Initial model, built off the Q2 2026 print: revenue $753.2M (+38.2%), US $621.8M, Rest of World $131.4M, 2,891K subscribers (+19%), $92 monthly revenue per average subscriber, 63.83% gross margin and a $97.2M loss from operations against $60.3M of Adjusted EBITDA. Verticals are cut by geography because geography is the only revenue split Hims publishes — the specialty structure management describes on every call (weight loss, sexual health, hair and dermatology, testosterone, menopause, Labs) has never been given a dollar figure, so it appears in theses and notes and nowhere in the numbers. Shares are the 231,746,126 diluted count reported for the quarter, which equals the basic count because the loss makes dilutive securities anti-dilutive; note the site's market cap uses the 227.65M share count stored on the profile. Net cash is the $609.8M June 30 cash balance less the $390.4M carrying value of the convertible notes issued in the quarter. Base case fair value $47.91 against the $33.54 snapshot; bear $19.74, bull $87.44, Dudum 2030 $109.90. Base full-year 2026 revenue projects to $3.14B, the bottom of the $3.1B-$3.3B guide, and 2030 to $7.73B at a 13.4% EBITDA margin against the company's stated $6.5B and 20%. |