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HIMS · Forward model · United States · Dudum 2030 case

What has to happen in United States

Model as of

This page changes United States inside the complete HIMS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HIMS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $109.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.35B 59% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $5.80B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own stated ambition, taken at face value: at least $6.5B of revenue and $1.3B of Adjusted EBITDA by 2030. State what it does not reach — and here the surprise is which half binds. The revenue target is not the hard part: the base case already reaches $7.7B in 2030 on 110K net adds a quarter and 1% ARPU drift. The margin is. Base gets to a 13.4% EBITDA margin in 2030 against the 20% the target implies, and this case only clears 20% because it adds six points of margin to every vertical by assumption. The gap between a reachable revenue number and an unreachable margin is the finding, not a reason to raise the deltas.

United States

Basis quarter$622M
Final quarter$2.35B
Implied CAGR+30%
Final revenue mix59%

The domestic platform: sexual health and hair loss as the mature, high-retention base, weight loss as the volume engine after the pivot to branded GLP-1s, and dermatology, mental health, testosterone, menopause and Labs stacked on top. Hims does not publish revenue by specialty, so none of those appear as lines here. What the company does publish is the platform base and what the US earns from it, and that is what this vertical projects: subscribers times the US revenue each subscriber produces.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $544M Estimated
2025 Q4 $554M Reported
2026 Q1 $530M Reported
2026 Q2 $622M Reported
Sexual health (Hims) — the original high-margin specialtyHair loss and dermatology, men's and women'sWeight loss, now branded GLP-1s rather than compoundedMental health, testosterone and hormone health, menopauseLabs by Hims — biomarker panels and the Galleri add-on
Subscribers 2.9M 2.4% of a 120.0M addressable base 2,891K at 2026 Q2, up 19% — the disclosed platform base. Hims does not split subscribers by geography, so this is company-wide.
Addressable subscribers 120.0M the S-curve ceiling 120M adults across the markets Hims now operates in. A ceiling on the base, not a forecast: today's 2.9M is 2.4% of it.
Net adds 110K/qtr ramping toward 170K/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM 110K a quarter against 452K added over the last four quarters — Q2's +307K included subscribers acquired with Eucalyptus, not sold.
Net-add ceiling 170K/qtr what supply can deliver at full rate 170K a quarter. New specialties add subscribers without adding acquisition channels, and marketing is already 34% of revenue.
ARPU $71.70/mo drifting +1.0% per quarter, floor $60.00 $71.70/month is US revenue divided by the whole platform base — both figures disclosed. It is a US yield, not a US ARPU.
Non-subscriber revenue $0/qtr growing 0.0% per quarter Zero. Every dollar of US revenue here comes through the subscriber base; wholesale is under 2% of revenue and is not modelled separately.
United States

Latest: $2.35B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $579M
2025Q2 $537M
2025Q3 $544M
2025Q4 $554M
2026Q1 $530M
2026Q2 $622M
2026Q3E $668M
2026Q4E $718M
2027Q1E $771M
2027Q2E $827M
2027Q3E $887M
2027Q4E $951M
2028Q1E $1.02B
2028Q2E $1.09B
2028Q3E $1.17B
2028Q4E $1.25B
2029Q1E $1.33B
2029Q2E $1.42B
2029Q3E $1.52B
2029Q4E $1.62B
2030Q1E $1.72B
2030Q2E $1.84B
2030Q3E $1.96B
2030Q4E $2.08B
2031Q1E $2.21B
2031Q2E $2.35B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment EBITDA margins in this model are OURS, not disclosure. Hims reports one consolidated income statement and no segment profitability at all, so 22% here is a pre-corporate contribution margin — gross margin less marketing and operations — chosen so that the blended figure less corporate overhead reproduces the 8% Adjusted EBITDA margin the company actually reported in 2026 Q2.
  • The subscription driver multiplies the WHOLE platform base by the revenue the US earns per subscriber. That is deliberate: splitting 2,891K subscribers into domestic and international would invent a disclosure Hims has never made. The consequence is that international subscriber growth dilutes the US yield rather than raising it, which is why the ARPU drift is 1% a quarter against MRPAS growth of 21% year over year.
  • Gross margin fell 12.6 points year over year in Q2 2026, 76.4% to 63.8%, as the mix moved to branded GLP-1s bought from manufacturers rather than compounded in-house. The margin path here assumes that erosion has largely happened and that scale plus the older high-margin specialties pull the contribution margin back up. If branded weight loss keeps taking share inside the mix, the 30% terminal is too high.
  • Labs and diagnostics sit inside this line and are not separable. Hims discloses no Labs revenue and no attach rate, so a reader who wants to size it has to do it through this vertical's ARPU drift, not through a line of its own.
  • Capex intensity of 4% is the reported ratio — $32.3M of purchases of property, equipment and intangibles on $753.2M of revenue in Q2 2026 — applied to the segment because there is no segment capex disclosure.
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