HIMS · Forward model · Rest of the World · Bear case
What has to happen in Rest of the World
Model as of
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Rest of the World
Basis quarter$131M
Final quarter$498M
Implied CAGR+31%
Final revenue mix34%
The international leg, which is almost entirely bought rather than built: ZAVA brought the UK and Germany, Eucalyptus closed in June 2026 and added Australia, Japan and a deeper UK and German footprint, and Canada is scaling on weight loss. Revenue went from $7.5M to $131.4M in a year. Nothing about that path is a subscriber curve yet, so this vertical is modelled as a growth line and says so.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$55M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$64M
Reported
2026 Q1
$78M
Reported
2026 Q2
$131M
Reported
United Kingdom and Germany (ZAVA, then Eucalyptus)Australia and Japan (Eucalyptus)Canada, weight-loss ledRest of the European Union
Sequential growth
+45.0%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
45% in the first projected quarter. Eucalyptus closed in June and contributed ~$40M, so Q2 carries about one month of a full quarter.
Rest of the World
Latest: $498M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $7M |
| 2025Q2 | $8M |
| 2025Q3 | $55M |
| 2025Q4 | $64M |
| 2026Q1 | $78M |
| 2026Q2 | $131M |
| 2026Q3E | $187M |
| 2026Q4E | $241M |
| 2027Q1E | $289M |
| 2027Q2E | $329M |
| 2027Q3E | $361M |
| 2027Q4E | $386M |
| 2028Q1E | $405M |
| 2028Q2E | $420M |
| 2028Q3E | $432M |
| 2028Q4E | $442M |
| 2029Q1E | $450M |
| 2029Q2E | $457M |
| 2029Q3E | $463M |
| 2029Q4E | $468M |
| 2030Q1E | $474M |
| 2030Q2E | $479M |
| 2030Q3E | $484M |
| 2030Q4E | $488M |
| 2031Q1E | $493M |
| 2031Q2E | $498M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver is the honest last resort here, not laziness. Hims discloses no international subscriber count, no international ARPU and no revenue by country — only that the UK, Australia and Germany each run above $100M annualised. There is no better constraint to model, and inventing one would be worse than admitting the gap.
- This path puts full-year 2026 international revenue at about $651M against management's guide of at least $600M, and the consolidated year at $3.14B against a guide of $3.1B to $3.3B — the bottom of it. The first projected quarter lands at $843M against a guided $880M to $900M. That near-term shortfall is left in rather than tuned away: a growth curve cannot reproduce a mid-quarter consolidation step, and forcing it to would misstate every quarter after it.
- The 4% starting margin is ours. Newly acquired businesses carry their own marketing and fulfilment cost bases and Hims has disclosed nothing about their profitability; the 20% terminal assumes they eventually run at roughly the platform's blended economics rather than better.
- Almost all of the year-over-year growth in this line was purchased. Eucalyptus contributed about $40M in the quarter it closed, so the 17-fold increase is not a same-store number and should not be read as one.