← HIMS forward model

HIMS · Forward model · Rest of the World · Bull case

What has to happen in Rest of the World

Model as of

This page changes Rest of the World inside the complete HIMS model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HIMS forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $87.44 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.00B 34% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.22B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Cross-sell works the way management describes it: weight loss and sexual health act as entry points, testosterone and menopause each clear the $100M run-rate the company treats as a milestone, and Labs turns a prescription business into a data relationship with a higher renewal rate. Margin recovers as the mature specialties grow faster than the drug-supplied ones.

Rest of the World

Basis quarter$131M
Final quarter$1.00B
Implied CAGR+50%
Final revenue mix34%

The international leg, which is almost entirely bought rather than built: ZAVA brought the UK and Germany, Eucalyptus closed in June 2026 and added Australia, Japan and a deeper UK and German footprint, and Canada is scaling on weight loss. Revenue went from $7.5M to $131.4M in a year. Nothing about that path is a subscriber curve yet, so this vertical is modelled as a growth line and says so.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $55M Estimated
2025 Q4 $64M Reported
2026 Q1 $78M Reported
2026 Q2 $131M Reported
United Kingdom and Germany (ZAVA, then Eucalyptus)Australia and Japan (Eucalyptus)Canada, weight-loss ledRest of the European Union
Sequential growth +45.0%/qtr decaying toward +3.0% 45% in the first projected quarter. Eucalyptus closed in June and contributed ~$40M, so Q2 carries about one month of a full quarter.
Rest of the World

Latest: $1.00B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7M
2025Q2 $8M
2025Q3 $55M
2025Q4 $64M
2026Q1 $78M
2026Q2 $131M
2026Q3E $193M
2026Q4E $258M
2027Q1E $321M
2027Q2E $378M
2027Q3E $430M
2027Q4E $476M
2028Q1E $518M
2028Q2E $556M
2028Q3E $593M
2028Q4E $627M
2029Q1E $662M
2029Q2E $696M
2029Q3E $730M
2029Q4E $765M
2030Q1E $802M
2030Q2E $839M
2030Q3E $878M
2030Q4E $919M
2031Q1E $961M
2031Q2E $1.00B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver is the honest last resort here, not laziness. Hims discloses no international subscriber count, no international ARPU and no revenue by country — only that the UK, Australia and Germany each run above $100M annualised. There is no better constraint to model, and inventing one would be worse than admitting the gap.
  • This path puts full-year 2026 international revenue at about $651M against management's guide of at least $600M, and the consolidated year at $3.14B against a guide of $3.1B to $3.3B — the bottom of it. The first projected quarter lands at $843M against a guided $880M to $900M. That near-term shortfall is left in rather than tuned away: a growth curve cannot reproduce a mid-quarter consolidation step, and forcing it to would misstate every quarter after it.
  • The 4% starting margin is ours. Newly acquired businesses carry their own marketing and fulfilment cost bases and Hims has disclosed nothing about their profitability; the 20% terminal assumes they eventually run at roughly the platform's blended economics rather than better.
  • Almost all of the year-over-year growth in this line was purchased. Eucalyptus contributed about $40M in the quarter it closed, so the 17-fold increase is not a same-store number and should not be read as one.
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