HIMS · Forward model · Dudum 2030 case
The Dudum 2030 case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Hims & Hers publishes ONE income statement and exactly one revenue split: United States and Rest of the World. It does not report revenue by specialty, by brand or by product, and management's colour — that Hers is over 40% of US revenue and on track for $1B, that weight loss is the largest growth engine, that testosterone is close to becoming the sixth US specialty at a $100M run rate — is commentary, not disclosure. Those statements shape the theses and the drivers here; none of them is turned into a line of revenue, because doing so would invent a split the company has refused to make. Every quarter of both verticals reconciles exactly to the consolidated revenue this site stores. The 2025 Q3 split is the only estimated point: the company reported Online and Wholesale revenue that quarter and only moved to the geographic split with Q4 2025, so 2025 Q3 is derived as the full-year figures less the other three quarters — arithmetic on disclosed numbers, but not a split the company published. What is assumed throughout is the COST side. Hims discloses no segment margins, no segment capex and no segment overhead, so every economics input in this file is ours: vertical EBITDA margins are pre-corporate contribution margins calibrated so the blend less an 11% corporate overhead reproduces the reported 8% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and capex intensity is the consolidated ratio applied to both segments. Read the margins as a hypothesis about where profit sits, not as a measurement of it.
Management's own stated ambition, taken at face value: at least $6.5B of revenue and $1.3B of Adjusted EBITDA by 2030. State what it does not reach — and here the surprise is which half binds. The revenue target is not the hard part: the base case already reaches $7.7B in 2030 on 110K net adds a quarter and 1% ARPU drift. The margin is. Base gets to a 13.4% EBITDA margin in 2030 against the 20% the target implies, and this case only clears 20% because it adds six points of margin to every vertical by assumption. The gap between a reachable revenue number and an unreachable margin is the finding, not a reason to raise the deltas.
Latest: $3.99B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $586M |
| 2025Q2 | $545M |
| 2025Q3 | $599M |
| 2025Q4 | $618M |
| 2026Q1 | $608M |
| 2026Q2 | $753M |
| 2026Q3E | $866M |
| 2026Q4E | $989M |
| 2027Q1E | $1.12B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.24B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.37B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.50B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.63B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.77B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.90B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.05B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.20B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.35B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.52B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.69B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.88B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.08B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.28B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.50B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.74B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.99B |
What drives each segment
United States
Subscribers × ARPUThe domestic platform: sexual health and hair loss as the mature, high-retention base, weight loss as the volume engine after the pivot to branded GLP-1s, and dermatology, mental health, testosterone, menopause and Labs stacked on top. Hims does not publish revenue by specialty, so none of those appear as lines here. What the company does publish is the platform base and what the US earns from it, and that is what this vertical projects: subscribers times the US revenue each subscriber produces.
Latest: $2.35B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $579M |
| 2025Q2 | $537M |
| 2025Q3 | $544M |
| 2025Q4 | $554M |
| 2026Q1 | $530M |
| 2026Q2 | $622M |
| 2026Q3E | $668M |
| 2026Q4E | $718M |
| 2027Q1E | $771M |
| 2027Q2E | $827M |
| 2027Q3E | $887M |
| 2027Q4E | $951M |
| 2028Q1E | $1.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.09B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.25B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.33B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.42B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.52B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.62B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.84B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.96B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.08B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.35B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment EBITDA margins in this model are OURS, not disclosure. Hims reports one consolidated income statement and no segment profitability at all, so 22% here is a pre-corporate contribution margin — gross margin less marketing and operations — chosen so that the blended figure less corporate overhead reproduces the 8% Adjusted EBITDA margin the company actually reported in 2026 Q2.
- The subscription driver multiplies the WHOLE platform base by the revenue the US earns per subscriber. That is deliberate: splitting 2,891K subscribers into domestic and international would invent a disclosure Hims has never made. The consequence is that international subscriber growth dilutes the US yield rather than raising it, which is why the ARPU drift is 1% a quarter against MRPAS growth of 21% year over year.
- Gross margin fell 12.6 points year over year in Q2 2026, 76.4% to 63.8%, as the mix moved to branded GLP-1s bought from manufacturers rather than compounded in-house. The margin path here assumes that erosion has largely happened and that scale plus the older high-margin specialties pull the contribution margin back up. If branded weight loss keeps taking share inside the mix, the 30% terminal is too high.
- Labs and diagnostics sit inside this line and are not separable. Hims discloses no Labs revenue and no attach rate, so a reader who wants to size it has to do it through this vertical's ARPU drift, not through a line of its own.
- Capex intensity of 4% is the reported ratio — $32.3M of purchases of property, equipment and intangibles on $753.2M of revenue in Q2 2026 — applied to the segment because there is no segment capex disclosure.
Rest of the World
Growth pathThe international leg, which is almost entirely bought rather than built: ZAVA brought the UK and Germany, Eucalyptus closed in June 2026 and added Australia, Japan and a deeper UK and German footprint, and Canada is scaling on weight loss. Revenue went from $7.5M to $131.4M in a year. Nothing about that path is a subscriber curve yet, so this vertical is modelled as a growth line and says so.
Latest: $1.63B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $7M |
| 2025Q2 | $8M |
| 2025Q3 | $55M |
| 2025Q4 | $64M |
| 2026Q1 | $78M |
| 2026Q2 | $131M |
| 2026Q3E | $198M |
| 2026Q4E | $271M |
| 2027Q1E | $345M |
| 2027Q2E | $417M |
| 2027Q3E | $486M |
| 2027Q4E | $551M |
| 2028Q1E | $614M |
| 2028Q2E | $676M |
| 2028Q3E | $738M |
| 2028Q4E | $800M |
| 2029Q1E | $865M |
| 2029Q2E | $932M |
| 2029Q3E | $1.00B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.08B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.24B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.33B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.42B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.53B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.63B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver is the honest last resort here, not laziness. Hims discloses no international subscriber count, no international ARPU and no revenue by country — only that the UK, Australia and Germany each run above $100M annualised. There is no better constraint to model, and inventing one would be worse than admitting the gap.
- This path puts full-year 2026 international revenue at about $651M against management's guide of at least $600M, and the consolidated year at $3.14B against a guide of $3.1B to $3.3B — the bottom of it. The first projected quarter lands at $843M against a guided $880M to $900M. That near-term shortfall is left in rather than tuned away: a growth curve cannot reproduce a mid-quarter consolidation step, and forcing it to would misstate every quarter after it.
- The 4% starting margin is ours. Newly acquired businesses carry their own marketing and fulfilment cost bases and Hims has disclosed nothing about their profitability; the 20% terminal assumes they eventually run at roughly the platform's blended economics rather than better.
- Almost all of the year-over-year growth in this line was purchased. Eucalyptus contributed about $40M in the quarter it closed, so the 17-fold increase is not a same-store number and should not be read as one.
Where each case comes from
Dudum 2030 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Dudum 2030 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the company has actually said
- Aug 10, 2026 Long-term targets restated: at least $6.5B revenue and $1.3B Adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
- Aug 10, 2026 Full year 2026 guidance: revenue of $3.1B to $3.3B and Adjusted EBITDA of $275M to $325M.
- Aug 10, 2026 Domestic revenue growth accelerated to 16% year-over-year, and our international business grew more than 17-fold, strengthened by the close of our Eucalyptus acquisition in June.
- Feb 23, 2026 Full year 2025 revenue of $2,347.6M, split $2,213.6M in the United States and $134.0M in the Rest of the World.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $3.84B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $14.51B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.89B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 2.6x |
| Terminal value | $37.73B |
| Discounted at 12.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $21.41B |
| Enterprise value | $25.25B |
| Net cash | $219M |
| Equity value | $25.47B |
| Diluted shares | 0.23B |
| Fair value per share | $109.90 |
| Against the current price of $31.86 | +245% |
2.0x terminal revenue against about 2.9x trailing at a $33.54 snapshot price, and roughly 14x the terminal EBITDA this model produces. A consumer subscription platform that buys its drugs from manufacturers and carries open regulatory exposure is not a software multiple. This input moves the answer more than any other.
Read the other way round: at $31.86 the market is paying 0.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | United States | Rest of the World | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $668M | $198M | $866M | +45% | $124M | $36M | $75M | +53 | $73M |
| 2026 Q4E | $718M | $271M | $989M | +60% | $143M | $40M | $88M | +69 | $83M |
| 2027 Q1E | $771M | $345M | $1.12B | +84% | $165M | $45M | $102M | +93 | $94M |
| 2027 Q2E | $827M | $417M | $1.24B | +65% | $189M | $49M | $118M | +75 | $106M |
| 2027 Q3E | $887M | $486M | $1.37B | +58% | $214M | $54M | $136M | +68 | $118M |
| 2027 Q4E | $951M | $551M | $1.50B | +52% | $241M | $58M | $156M | +62 | $131M |
| 2028 Q1E | $1.02B | $614M | $1.63B | +46% | $269M | $62M | $176M | +57 | $144M |
| 2028 Q2E | $1.09B | $676M | $1.77B | +42% | $299M | $67M | $198M | +53 | $157M |
| 2028 Q3E | $1.17B | $738M | $1.90B | +39% | $330M | $71M | $220M | +50 | $171M |
| 2028 Q4E | $1.25B | $800M | $2.05B | +36% | $363M | $76M | $244M | +48 | $184M |
| 2029 Q1E | $1.33B | $865M | $2.20B | +35% | $397M | $81M | $269M | +47 | $197M |
| 2029 Q2E | $1.42B | $932M | $2.35B | +33% | $434M | $86M | $296M | +46 | $211M |
| 2029 Q3E | $1.52B | $1.00B | $2.52B | +32% | $472M | $91M | $324M | +45 | $224M |
| 2029 Q4E | $1.62B | $1.08B | $2.69B | +32% | $512M | $97M | $353M | +45 | $237M |
| 2030 Q1E | $1.72B | $1.15B | $2.88B | +31% | $554M | $103M | $384M | +44 | $251M |
| 2030 Q2E | $1.84B | $1.24B | $3.08B | +31% | $599M | $109M | $416M | +44 | $264M |
| 2030 Q3E | $1.96B | $1.33B | $3.28B | +30% | $646M | $116M | $450M | +44 | $278M |
| 2030 Q4E | $2.08B | $1.42B | $3.50B | +30% | $695M | $124M | $486M | +44 | $292M |
| 2031 Q1E | $2.21B | $1.53B | $3.74B | +30% | $748M | $131M | $524M | +44 | $306M |
| 2031 Q2E | $2.35B | $1.63B | $3.99B | +30% | $803M | $140M | $564M | +44 | $320M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | — | Initial model, built off the Q2 2026 print: revenue $753.2M (+38.2%), US $621.8M, Rest of World $131.4M, 2,891K subscribers (+19%), $92 monthly revenue per average subscriber, 63.83% gross margin and a $97.2M loss from operations against $60.3M of Adjusted EBITDA. Verticals are cut by geography because geography is the only revenue split Hims publishes — the specialty structure management describes on every call (weight loss, sexual health, hair and dermatology, testosterone, menopause, Labs) has never been given a dollar figure, so it appears in theses and notes and nowhere in the numbers. Shares are the 231,746,126 diluted count reported for the quarter, which equals the basic count because the loss makes dilutive securities anti-dilutive; note the site's market cap uses the 227.65M share count stored on the profile. Net cash is the $609.8M June 30 cash balance less the $390.4M carrying value of the convertible notes issued in the quarter. Base case fair value $47.91 against the $33.54 snapshot; bear $19.74, bull $87.44, Dudum 2030 $109.90. Base full-year 2026 revenue projects to $3.14B, the bottom of the $3.1B-$3.3B guide, and 2030 to $7.73B at a 13.4% EBITDA margin against the company's stated $6.5B and 20%. |