HD · Forward model · Other - SRS specialty trade distribution · Bear case
What has to happen in Other - SRS specialty trade distribution
Model as of
This page changes Other - SRS specialty trade distribution inside the complete HD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Other - SRS specialty trade distribution
The 'Other' line in the segment note: five SRS operating segments - roofing and building products, interior and construction products, landscape, pool and HVAC - none individually large enough to be reportable under Topic 280. It is the entire growth story. Other net sales went from nil before 18 June 2024 to $5,055M in the basis quarter, 10.6% of the company, and it is what turned +1.7% comparable sales into +5.7% total sales. It was built by acquisition - SRS in 2024, GMS for $5.1bn in September 2025, Mingledorff's for about $1.1bn in May 2026 - and management now guides it organically: mid-single-digit percent organic sales growth plus 40 to 50 new branches this year.
Latest: $4.80B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.27B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.93B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.20B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.57B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.12B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.89B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.14B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.00B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.31B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.23B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.09B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.07B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.31B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.23B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.07B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.04B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.27B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.19B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.03B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.97B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.22B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.15B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.97B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.89B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.14B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.89B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.80B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Nine quarters of disclosed history and five explicit zeros before them. The zeros are real, not padding around a gap: Other did not exist until SRS closed on 18 June 2024, and the fiscal 2025 10-K confirms Primary equalled consolidated for all of fiscal 2023. They are marked estimated because they come from that identity rather than from a printed segment table.
- The first non-zero quarter is a stub. SRS closed roughly six weeks into fiscal 2024 Q2, so the $1,274M in 2024 Q2 here is not a full quarter of trading; it is carried as history but is excluded from every growth rate and every seasonal factor in this model.
- The 7.28% EBITDA margin is segment-disclosed on a trailing-twelve-month basis: operating income $291M plus D&A $880M over net sales $16,085M. The reported operating margin is far thinner, about 1.8%, because most of this segment's D&A is acquired-intangible amortisation - $125M of the $236M booked in the basis quarter. Terminal 8.0% sits between today and fiscal 2024's pre-GMS 8.91%: scale on integration, not a re-rating.
- A capacity driver on branches was considered and rejected. Branch counts are disclosed only as rounded floors - 'over 760', 'over 800', 'over 1,200', 'over 1,340' - and the base stepped with acquisitions rather than with capacity added, so revenue per branch would be an artefact of the rounding. Growth on the disclosed net-sales line is the only evidenced driver here.
- Home Depot has spent roughly $8bn on SRS, $5.1bn on GMS and $1.1bn on Mingledorff's in three years and gives no forward acquisition guidance. The 1.40% quarterly rate is organic plus new branches only. A further tuck-in would put this model below reported revenue without the model being wrong, and no acquisition allowance is added to pretend otherwise.