HD · Forward model · Primary segment - stores, online and HD Supply · Bear case
What has to happen in Primary segment - stores, online and HD Supply
Model as of
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Primary segment - stores, online and HD Supply
Home Depot's one reportable segment: 2,364 retail stores across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the interconnected online business and HD Supply facilities maintenance, aggregated from three geographic operating segments. It is $42,806M of the basis quarter's $47,861M - 89.4% of the company - and it is the line management guides through comparable sales. Revenue here is a volume the company publishes every quarter, customer transactions, monetised at a price it also publishes, average ticket. In the basis quarter volume fell and price rose: transactions -0.8% to 443.2M, comparable transactions -1.0%, comparable average ticket +2.8%. Home Depot sold to fewer people for more money, and it has done so for six straight quarters.
Latest: $40.89B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $37.26B |
| 2023Q2 | $42.92B |
| 2023Q3 | $37.71B |
| 2023Q4 | $34.79B |
| 2024Q1 | $36.42B |
| 2024Q2 | $41.90B |
| 2024Q3 | $37.29B |
| 2024Q4 | $37.50B |
| 2025Q1 | $37.29B |
| 2025Q2 | $42.16B |
| 2025Q3 | $37.46B |
| 2025Q4 | $35.06B |
| 2026Q1 | $37.76B |
| 2026Q2 | $42.81B |
| 2026Q3E | $37.80B |
| 2026Q4E | $35.09B |
| 2027Q1E | $37.10B |
| 2027Q2E | $42.35B |
| 2027Q3E | $37.41B |
| 2027Q4E | $34.74B |
| 2028Q1E | $36.73B |
| 2028Q2E | $41.94B |
| 2028Q3E | $37.06B |
| 2028Q4E | $34.41B |
| 2029Q1E | $36.40B |
| 2029Q2E | $41.56B |
| 2029Q3E | $36.73B |
| 2029Q4E | $34.12B |
| 2030Q1E | $36.09B |
| 2030Q2E | $41.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $36.43B |
| 2030Q4E | $33.84B |
| 2031Q1E | $35.80B |
| 2031Q2E | $40.89B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Home Depot has disclosed Primary net sales, operating income and D&A in every 10-Q since fiscal 2025 Q1 under ASU 2023-07. Ten of the fourteen quarters here are copied straight from those tables; the four fiscal 2023 quarters use the identity Primary = consolidated, which the fiscal 2025 10-K confirms annually ($152,669M Primary equals $152,669M consolidated for fiscal 2023) and which holds because Other was nil until SRS closed on 18 June 2024. The two fourth quarters, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 here, are derived as full year less nine months and are marked estimated.
- The 15.75% EBITDA margin is the trailing twelve months, not the basis quarter. Segment-disclosed: TTM Primary operating income $20,731M plus TTM Primary D&A $3,374M over TTM Primary net sales $153,091M. The basis quarter itself ran 17.41% because margin is seasonal too, and the engine applies one margin to every projected quarter - starting from the peak would overstate every winter.
- The published average ticket and customer transactions exclude HD Supply and SRS, so the driver's price is Primary net sales divided by transactions, $97.20, not the published $92.50. The $1.8bn-a-quarter gap is HD Supply, which Home Depot does not size separately. No Pro-versus-DIY split exists in any filing and none is invented here.
- The basis quarter's gross margin contains $685M of IEEPA tariff refunds that reduced cost of goods sold, and management says those refunds are offsetting unplanned fuel, energy and input costs across the year, with fourth-quarter gross margin expected 'right around flat' year over year. The refund is timing, not level, which is one reason the terminal margin is set 35bp below trailing rather than above it.