HD · Forward model · Other - SRS specialty trade distribution · Bull case
What has to happen in Other - SRS specialty trade distribution
Model as of
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Other - SRS specialty trade distribution
The 'Other' line in the segment note: five SRS operating segments - roofing and building products, interior and construction products, landscape, pool and HVAC - none individually large enough to be reportable under Topic 280. It is the entire growth story. Other net sales went from nil before 18 June 2024 to $5,055M in the basis quarter, 10.6% of the company, and it is what turned +1.7% comparable sales into +5.7% total sales. It was built by acquisition - SRS in 2024, GMS for $5.1bn in September 2025, Mingledorff's for about $1.1bn in May 2026 - and management now guides it organically: mid-single-digit percent organic sales growth plus 40 to 50 new branches this year.
Latest: $6.98B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2023Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2024Q2 | $1.27B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.93B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.20B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.57B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.12B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.89B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.14B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.00B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.38B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.31B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.44B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.71B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.59B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.62B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.81B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.03B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.83B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.92B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.19B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.35B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.07B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.58B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.68B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.32B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.55B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.98B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Nine quarters of disclosed history and five explicit zeros before them. The zeros are real, not padding around a gap: Other did not exist until SRS closed on 18 June 2024, and the fiscal 2025 10-K confirms Primary equalled consolidated for all of fiscal 2023. They are marked estimated because they come from that identity rather than from a printed segment table.
- The first non-zero quarter is a stub. SRS closed roughly six weeks into fiscal 2024 Q2, so the $1,274M in 2024 Q2 here is not a full quarter of trading; it is carried as history but is excluded from every growth rate and every seasonal factor in this model.
- The 7.28% EBITDA margin is segment-disclosed on a trailing-twelve-month basis: operating income $291M plus D&A $880M over net sales $16,085M. The reported operating margin is far thinner, about 1.8%, because most of this segment's D&A is acquired-intangible amortisation - $125M of the $236M booked in the basis quarter. Terminal 8.0% sits between today and fiscal 2024's pre-GMS 8.91%: scale on integration, not a re-rating.
- A capacity driver on branches was considered and rejected. Branch counts are disclosed only as rounded floors - 'over 760', 'over 800', 'over 1,200', 'over 1,340' - and the base stepped with acquisitions rather than with capacity added, so revenue per branch would be an artefact of the rounding. Growth on the disclosed net-sales line is the only evidenced driver here.
- Home Depot has spent roughly $8bn on SRS, $5.1bn on GMS and $1.1bn on Mingledorff's in three years and gives no forward acquisition guidance. The 1.40% quarterly rate is organic plus new branches only. A further tuck-in would put this model below reported revenue without the model being wrong, and no acquisition allowance is added to pretend otherwise.