CVX · Forward model · Kilby case
The Kilby case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Five verticals, four reportable segment-by-geography lines plus All Other, which is the finest cut Chevron actually reports; no Permian, Gulf of America or Guyana split is attempted because none is disclosed. The five lines sum to reported Total Revenues and Other Income in all ten quarters, to the dollar, from 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Ten quarters is the whole history available on this basis: the segment presentation carrying Total Revenues and Other Income begins with the 2025 filings, whose comparatives reach 2024 Q1, and earlier 10-Qs disclose segment revenue only before and after intersegment elimination. Three quarters are marked estimated - 2024 Q1, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 - because they were obtained by subtracting a cumulative period from an annual or nine-month total; all three are independently confirmed by the FY2025 10-K quarterly table. Disclosed: volumes, throughput, realisations, capex, the 2026 capex range, the Q3 2026 buyback range and the 2030 objectives. Assumed and labelled as such: every forward price path, the terminal margins, the 9% discount rate and the 7.0x exit multiple. Segment EBITDA margins are computed against post-elimination revenue, so U.S. Upstream's derived 137.7% is an arithmetic artefact of intersegment transfers rather than profitability; the model caps it at 100% and credits the $2,114M difference to U.S. Downstream, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles to the reported $22,766M. Project Kilby carries zero revenue because no capital cost, revenue schedule or first-power date has been disclosed anywhere. No Venezuela volume is modelled: the 10-Q states production and reserves there are not included in the company's results.
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Latest: $54.85B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $48.72B |
| 2024Q2 | $51.18B |
| 2024Q3 | $50.67B |
| 2024Q4 | $52.23B |
| 2025Q1 | $47.61B |
| 2025Q2 | $44.82B |
| 2025Q3 | $49.73B |
| 2025Q4 | $46.87B |
| 2026Q1 | $48.61B |
| 2026Q2 | $70.06B |
| 2026Q3E | $63.82B |
| 2026Q4E | $58.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $57.58B |
| 2027Q2E | $56.51B |
| 2027Q3E | $54.74B |
| 2027Q4E | $52.20B |
| 2028Q1E | $53.37B |
| 2028Q2E | $53.66B |
| 2028Q3E | $52.91B |
| 2028Q4E | $51.13B |
| 2029Q1E | $52.78B |
| 2029Q2E | $53.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $53.00B |
| 2029Q4E | $51.42B |
| 2030Q1E | $53.24B |
| 2030Q2E | $54.04B |
| 2030Q3E | $53.66B |
| 2030Q4E | $52.14B |
| 2031Q1E | $54.01B |
| 2031Q2E | $54.85B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Kilby case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Kilby column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Kilby disclosure
- Jul 31, 2026 a power facility in West Texas designed to provide approximately 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter dedicated electricity capacity to a Microsoft data center under a 20-year power purchase agreement
- Aug 6, 2026 Chevron expects share repurchases in third quarter 2026 to be between $2.5-$3.0 billion
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 9.0% a year with an exit multiple of 7.6x on EBITDA. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $119.70B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $214.66B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $55.62B |
| Exit multiple, on EBITDA | 7.6x |
| Terminal value | $422.72B |
| Discounted at 9.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $274.74B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 70% |
| Enterprise value | $394.43B |
| Net cash | −$28.55B |
| Equity value | $365.89B |
| Shares | 1.96B |
| Fair value per share | $186.49 |
| Against the deployed price of $204.21, as of | −9% |
9% is the cost of equity for a major running a 13.1% net debt ratio. The 7.0x exit sits between the 7.9x the market pays on trailing EBITDA that contains the spike quarter and the 6-7x a mid-cycle major usually fetches. Against FY2025 EBITDA of $39.9B the same enterprise value is 10.7x, which is the whole argument: the multiple you believe depends entirely on which EBITDA you think is normal.
Read the other way round: at $204.21 the market is paying 8.6x terminal-year EBITDA, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | U.S. Upstream | International Upstream | U.S. Downstream | International Downstream | All Other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $5.60B | $12.46B | $22.72B | $22.90B | $146M | $63.82B | +28% | $19.68B | $4.43B | $11.17B | +46 | $10.93B |
| 2026 Q4E | $5.60B | $11.74B | $19.60B | $21.13B | $146M | $58.21B | +24% | $17.48B | $4.36B | $9.60B | +41 | $9.20B |
| 2027 Q1E | $5.62B | $11.26B | $20.64B | $19.92B | $146M | $57.58B | +18% | $16.39B | $4.35B | $8.82B | +34 | $8.27B |
| 2027 Q2E | $5.64B | $10.93B | $20.72B | $19.08B | $146M | $56.51B | −19% | $15.54B | $4.34B | $8.19B | −5 | $7.52B |
| 2027 Q3E | $5.67B | $10.72B | $19.73B | $18.48B | $146M | $54.74B | −14% | $14.84B | $4.35B | $7.68B | 0 | $6.90B |
| 2027 Q4E | $5.70B | $10.58B | $17.71B | $18.07B | $146M | $52.20B | −10% | $14.26B | $4.35B | $7.26B | +4 | $6.38B |
| 2028 Q1E | $5.74B | $10.50B | $19.21B | $17.77B | $146M | $53.37B | −7% | $14.07B | $4.39B | $7.09B | +6 | $6.10B |
| 2028 Q2E | $5.77B | $10.46B | $19.71B | $17.57B | $146M | $53.66B | −5% | $13.90B | $4.42B | $6.94B | +8 | $5.84B |
| 2028 Q3E | $5.82B | $10.45B | $19.08B | $17.42B | $146M | $52.91B | −3% | $13.73B | $4.45B | $6.80B | +10 | $5.60B |
| 2028 Q4E | $5.86B | $10.47B | $17.33B | $17.33B | $146M | $51.13B | −2% | $13.56B | $4.46B | $6.65B | +11 | $5.36B |
| 2029 Q1E | $5.90B | $10.50B | $18.97B | $17.27B | $146M | $52.78B | −1% | $13.60B | $4.51B | $6.65B | +12 | $5.25B |
| 2029 Q2E | $5.94B | $10.54B | $19.60B | $17.24B | $146M | $53.46B | 0% | $13.62B | $4.55B | $6.64B | +12 | $5.12B |
| 2029 Q3E | $5.99B | $10.59B | $19.05B | $17.22B | $146M | $53.00B | 0% | $13.61B | $4.59B | $6.60B | +13 | $4.99B |
| 2029 Q4E | $6.03B | $10.65B | $17.37B | $17.22B | $146M | $51.42B | +1% | $13.56B | $4.61B | $6.55B | +13 | $4.84B |
| 2030 Q1E | $6.08B | $10.72B | $19.06B | $17.23B | $146M | $53.24B | +1% | $13.68B | $4.66B | $6.60B | +13 | $4.78B |
| 2030 Q2E | $6.12B | $10.79B | $19.73B | $17.25B | $146M | $54.04B | +1% | $13.76B | $4.70B | $6.63B | +13 | $4.70B |
| 2030 Q3E | $6.17B | $10.86B | $19.21B | $17.28B | $146M | $53.66B | +1% | $13.80B | $4.73B | $6.64B | +14 | $4.60B |
| 2030 Q4E | $6.22B | $10.94B | $17.53B | $17.31B | $146M | $52.14B | +1% | $13.80B | $4.75B | $6.62B | +14 | $4.49B |
| 2031 Q1E | $6.26B | $11.02B | $19.25B | $17.34B | $146M | $54.01B | +1% | $13.95B | $4.81B | $6.70B | +14 | $4.45B |
| 2031 Q2E | $6.31B | $11.10B | $19.92B | $17.37B | $146M | $54.85B | +2% | $14.06B | $4.85B | $6.75B | +14 | $4.38B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $175.43 | First published model, built from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Five reported segment lines, unit drivers on all four operating segments, a flat stub for All Other, and an explicit price-normalisation path out of a $104 Brent basis quarter. |