CRWV · Forward model · CoreWeave Cloud
What has to happen in CoreWeave Cloud
Model as of
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CoreWeave Cloud
One business: contracted GPU clusters sold on multi-year reserved contracts, together with the storage, networking, CPU and managed-inference services layered on top of them. What caps revenue is not demand but energised power - management describes demand from multiple customers for every GPU brought online, against a $104 billion revenue backlog. So the projection here is a build schedule rather than a sales forecast: megawatts switched on, the share of them actually earning across a quarter, and what a megawatt-quarter of CoreWeave Cloud sells for.
Latest: $23.13B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $189M |
| 2024Q2 | $395M |
| 2024Q3 | $584M |
| 2024Q4 | $747M |
| 2025Q1 | $982M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.21B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.57B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.08B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.58B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.62B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.53B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.35B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.12B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.89B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.69B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.53B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.42B |
| 2028Q3E | $10.38B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.41B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.52B |
| 2029Q2E | $13.71B |
| 2029Q3E | $15.00B |
| 2029Q4E | $16.39B |
| 2030Q1E | $17.89B |
| 2030Q2E | $19.51B |
| 2030Q3E | $21.25B |
| 2030Q4E | $23.13B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is consolidated revenue as reported. CoreWeave publishes one reportable segment and no revenue split, so this vertical is the whole company: nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated.
- Managed inference ARR went from $1M to more than $100M and the non-GPU services already exceed $400M of ARR, but both are ARR disclosures inside the same total and never segment revenue, so neither is broken out into its own line.
- Utilisation here is the share of energised megawatts earning across the quarter, not a contracted share. It reads 77% for Q2 because 300 of the 500 MW added landed in June, which is also why management says that power comes through in Q3 and Q4.
- Adjusted EBITDA is 92% depreciation and amortisation added back - D&A was $1,393M of the $1,510M. This margin is therefore a pre-depreciation margin on a fleet whose depreciation is the real cost of producing the revenue.
- Capex follows the guided $35-39B for 2026, which includes finance-leased hardware. The stored house free-cash-flow series counts only the cash property and equipment line, so this model burns considerably more than that series shows.
- Share count is held flat at the 551 million diluted shares of Q2, so the 13% year-over-year dilution and the $997M of common stock issued in the quarter are charged nowhere in the fair value.