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CRWV · Forward model · CoreWeave Cloud · Power slips case

What has to happen in CoreWeave Cloud

Model as of

This page changes CoreWeave Cloud inside the complete CRWV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

CRWV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $20.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $17.62B 100% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$61.19B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Moratoriums and grid queues push the build right without killing it. The 8 GW is still reached, just later, and the megawatts arrive after the contracts have already repriced. Revenue lands about 24% below base by 2030 at an unchanged multiple, which isolates how much of this equity is a schedule rather than a demand question.

CoreWeave Cloud

Basis quarter$2.58B
Final quarter$17.62B
Implied CAGR+53%
Final revenue mix100%

One business: contracted GPU clusters sold on multi-year reserved contracts, together with the storage, networking, CPU and managed-inference services layered on top of them. What caps revenue is not demand but energised power - management describes demand from multiple customers for every GPU brought online, against a $104 billion revenue backlog. So the projection here is a build schedule rather than a sales forecast: megawatts switched on, the share of them actually earning across a quarter, and what a megawatt-quarter of CoreWeave Cloud sells for.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.36B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.57B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.08B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.58B Reported
Reserved GPU compute on multi-year contractsStorage, CPU, networking and software (>$400M ARR)Managed inference (>$100M ARR)
Megawatts energised 1500 MW at the basis quarter 1.5 GW of active power at the end of Q2, the headline operating metric management reports. Nearly 500 MW of it arrived in the quarter.
Megawatts added 187 MW/qtr changing +7.2% per quarter 187 MW a quarter: the raised year-end guide of more than 1.85 GW, less the 1.5 GW already energised, spread over two quarters.
Utilisation 77% gliding toward 95% Not sell-through. The share of energised MW earning across the quarter: 300 of Q2's 500 MW arrived in June, so most of it barely earned.
Revenue per MW $2.24M/qtr drifting +11.8% per quarter $2.575B over 1,500 MW at 76.7% - what a megawatt-quarter of CoreWeave Cloud actually billed in Q2 2026.
CoreWeave Cloud

Latest: $17.62B (2030Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $189M
2024Q2 $395M
2024Q3 $584M
2024Q4 $747M
2025Q1 $982M
2025Q2 $1.21B
2025Q3 $1.36B
2025Q4 $1.57B
2026Q1 $2.08B
2026Q2 $2.58B
2026Q3E $3.57B
2026Q4E $4.40B
2027Q1E $5.11B
2027Q2E $5.76B
2027Q3E $6.39B
2027Q4E $7.02B
2028Q1E $7.67B
2028Q2E $8.35B
2028Q3E $9.06B
2028Q4E $9.81B
2029Q1E $10.60B
2029Q2E $11.44B
2029Q3E $12.32B
2029Q4E $13.26B
2030Q1E $14.26B
2030Q2E $15.32B
2030Q3E $16.43B
2030Q4E $17.62B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Every quarter here is consolidated revenue as reported. CoreWeave publishes one reportable segment and no revenue split, so this vertical is the whole company: nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated.
  • Managed inference ARR went from $1M to more than $100M and the non-GPU services already exceed $400M of ARR, but both are ARR disclosures inside the same total and never segment revenue, so neither is broken out into its own line.
  • Utilisation here is the share of energised megawatts earning across the quarter, not a contracted share. It reads 77% for Q2 because 300 of the 500 MW added landed in June, which is also why management says that power comes through in Q3 and Q4.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is 92% depreciation and amortisation added back - D&A was $1,393M of the $1,510M. This margin is therefore a pre-depreciation margin on a fleet whose depreciation is the real cost of producing the revenue.
  • Capex follows the guided $35-39B for 2026, which includes finance-leased hardware. The stored house free-cash-flow series counts only the cash property and equipment line, so this model burns considerably more than that series shows.
  • Share count is held flat at the 551 million diluted shares of Q2, so the 13% year-over-year dilution and the $997M of common stock issued in the quarter are charged nowhere in the fair value.
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