CRWV · Forward model · CoreWeave Cloud · Bear case
What has to happen in CoreWeave Cloud
Model as of
This page changes CoreWeave Cloud inside the complete CRWV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
CoreWeave Cloud
One business: contracted GPU clusters sold on multi-year reserved contracts, together with the storage, networking, CPU and managed-inference services layered on top of them. What caps revenue is not demand but energised power - management describes demand from multiple customers for every GPU brought online, against a $104 billion revenue backlog. So the projection here is a build schedule rather than a sales forecast: megawatts switched on, the share of them actually earning across a quarter, and what a megawatt-quarter of CoreWeave Cloud sells for.
Latest: $14.66B (2030Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $189M |
| 2024Q2 | $395M |
| 2024Q3 | $584M |
| 2024Q4 | $747M |
| 2025Q1 | $982M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.21B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.57B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.08B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.58B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.53B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.31B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.95B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.53B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.60B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.14B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.69B |
| 2028Q3E | $8.26B |
| 2028Q4E | $8.86B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.47B |
| 2029Q2E | $10.12B |
| 2029Q3E | $10.79B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.50B |
| 2030Q1E | $12.24B |
| 2030Q2E | $13.01B |
| 2030Q3E | $13.82B |
| 2030Q4E | $14.66B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Every quarter here is consolidated revenue as reported. CoreWeave publishes one reportable segment and no revenue split, so this vertical is the whole company: nothing is apportioned and no quarter is estimated.
- Managed inference ARR went from $1M to more than $100M and the non-GPU services already exceed $400M of ARR, but both are ARR disclosures inside the same total and never segment revenue, so neither is broken out into its own line.
- Utilisation here is the share of energised megawatts earning across the quarter, not a contracted share. It reads 77% for Q2 because 300 of the 500 MW added landed in June, which is also why management says that power comes through in Q3 and Q4.
- Adjusted EBITDA is 92% depreciation and amortisation added back - D&A was $1,393M of the $1,510M. This margin is therefore a pre-depreciation margin on a fleet whose depreciation is the real cost of producing the revenue.
- Capex follows the guided $35-39B for 2026, which includes finance-leased hardware. The stored house free-cash-flow series counts only the cash property and equipment line, so this model burns considerably more than that series shows.
- Share count is held flat at the 551 million diluted shares of Q2, so the 13% year-over-year dilution and the $997M of common stock issued in the quarter are charged nowhere in the fair value.