BIDU · Forward model · Apollo Go (Robotaxi)
What has to happen in Apollo Go (Robotaxi)
Model as of
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Apollo Go (Robotaxi)
Basis quarter$14M
Final quarter$233M
Implied CAGR+75%
Final revenue mix3%
The long-duration option. 28 cities, over 350 million cumulative autonomous kilometres and 240 million of them fully driverless, live commercial driverless service in Dubai, open-road testing in London with Uber and Lyft, and the first fully driverless permits in a right-hand-drive market. It is also, on any honest estimate, well under half a percent of revenue today.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$10M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$12M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$12M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$14M
Estimated
Fully driverless ride fares, ChinaInternational operations (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong)Platform rides resold through Uber and Lyft
Units
3800000/qtr
growing +14.0% per quarter
About 3.8M fully driverless rides in the quarter - estimated. Baidu disclosed 3.2M in Q1 2026 and stopped disclosing after that.
Price per unit
$4
drifting +1.5% per quarter
US$3.70 a ride blended across heavily discounted Chinese cities and much higher international fares.
Apollo Go (Robotaxi)
Latest: $233M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4M |
| 2025Q2 | $7M |
| 2025Q3 | $10M |
| 2025Q4 | $12M |
| 2026Q1 | $12M |
| 2026Q2 | $14M |
| 2026Q3E | $16M |
| 2026Q4E | $19M |
| 2027Q1E | $22M |
| 2027Q2E | $25M |
| 2027Q3E | $29M |
| 2027Q4E | $33M |
| 2028Q1E | $38M |
| 2028Q2E | $44M |
| 2028Q3E | $51M |
| 2028Q4E | $58M |
| 2029Q1E | $67M |
| 2029Q2E | $77M |
| 2029Q3E | $89M |
| 2029Q4E | $102M |
| 2030Q1E | $117M |
| 2030Q2E | $134M |
| 2030Q3E | $154M |
| 2030Q4E | $177M |
| 2031Q1E | $203M |
| 2031Q2E | $233M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Baidu does NOT disclose Apollo Go revenue. Every figure in this vertical is an estimate and should be treated as one. It is carved out of the Others line of Baidu General Business, where it actually sits, so carving it out does not add revenue to the model.
- The estimate is rides multiplied by an assumed fare. Disclosed ride counts: 3.4M fully driverless rides in Q4 2025 and 3.2M in Q1 2026, with weekly rides peaking above 350,000 in March 2026. Q2 2026 is estimated at 3.8M because Baidu stopped publishing the ride count this quarter and gave only cumulative kilometres - which rose about 20 million in the quarter.
- That Baidu dropped the quarterly ride count in the same quarter it added Dubai, Hong Kong and London is worth noticing. A company whose robotaxi rides were compounding usually keeps printing the number.
- Fare is assumed at US$3.70 a ride, blended. Chinese robotaxi fares are heavily discounted - materially below a human-driven ride - and the international cities price far higher. The fare drifts UP 1.5% a quarter as the international mix grows, which is the opposite of most ride-hailing models and is the whole reason the line is interesting.
- Volume compounds at 14% a quarter against a ceiling of 60 million rides a quarter. That reaches roughly 52 million rides and about $259M of quarterly revenue in the terminal year - around 4% of company revenue. Anyone modelling Apollo Go as a material part of Baidu's value inside five years is making an argument this model does not make.
- Capex intensity starts at 200% of the line's revenue: every vehicle is bought before it earns. It glides to 40%, which assumes the fleet reaches the point where replacement rather than expansion dominates.