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BE · Forward model · Installation · Bull case

What has to happen in Installation

Model as of

This page changes Installation inside the complete BE model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BE forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $179.67 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $116M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The option half of the book becomes purchase orders: Oracle's remaining 1.6 GW gets contracted, AEP exercises the rest of its option, and Brookfield's shelf funds the sites that let end users take power without capex. This is the case where the factory, not the order book, becomes the constraint and the incremental-gigawatt programme gets pulled forward. What it does NOT reach is the headline arithmetic — $25B of Brookfield capacity and 25 GW of supply visibility are capital and materials, not orders, and nothing in this model converts them.

Installation

Basis quarter$51M
Final quarter$116M
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix3%

Site work that turns delivered boxes on. Economically a pass-through Bloom runs at or below cost, and structurally a shrinking claim on the P&L: as deployments move to AI-scale campuses where a financier or EPC contracts the civil and electrical work directly, less of it lands in Bloom's revenue at all. Installation was 17.1% of product revenue in 2025 Q3 and 4.0% and 5.4% in the two most recent quarters. It is driven off the same megawatts as product, at a falling dollar-per-megawatt.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $66M Reported
2025 Q4 $67M Estimated
2026 Q1 $26M Reported
2026 Q2 $51M Reported
Site engineering, civil and electrical work to commission Energy Servers
Units 312/qtr growing +4.0% per quarter The same 312 MW the product vertical implies for the basis quarter — installation follows deployments.
Price per unit $163496 drifting −3.0% per quarter Q2'26 installation revenue of $51.0M over the 312 MW implied for the quarter.
Installation

Latest: $116M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $21M
2023Q2 $24M
2023Q3 $22M
2023Q4 $26M
2024Q1 $11M
2024Q2 $43M
2024Q3 $32M
2024Q4 $36M
2025Q1 $34M
2025Q2 $37M
2025Q3 $66M
2025Q4 $67M
2026Q1 $26M
2026Q2 $51M
2026Q3E $52M
2026Q4E $54M
2027Q1E $56M
2027Q2E $58M
2027Q3E $60M
2027Q4E $62M
2028Q1E $65M
2028Q2E $68M
2028Q3E $71M
2028Q4E $74M
2029Q1E $77M
2029Q2E $80M
2029Q3E $84M
2029Q4E $88M
2030Q1E $92M
2030Q2E $96M
2030Q3E $101M
2030Q4E $106M
2031Q1E $111M
2031Q2E $116M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Gross margin has been negative in eleven of the fourteen reported quarters, ranging -35.3% to +8.9%. Modelling this line at a positive margin would misstate how Bloom actually books site work.
  • The ratio to product revenue is the real variable and it is falling hard: 17.1%, 10.5%, 4.0%, 5.4% over the last four quarters. That is a mix shift toward AI-scale sites, not a pricing change, and it is why this line does not scale with product.
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