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What has to happen in Global Wealth & Investment Management

Model as of

This page changes Global Wealth & Investment Management inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $42.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.13B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $28.29B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Global Markets mean-reverts from a record +34% quarter, the credit cycle arrives as a step rather than a glide, and NII misses the upper end of 6-8% because the September hike in the forward curve the guide is conditioned on does not land. Consumer Banking takes the deepest margin cut, minus 4.0 points in total, which on that segment alone is roughly $1.9B a year of extra provision - the model's substitute for a credit cycle, since provisions live inside the vertical margins and cannot be stepped any other way. The market re-rates BAC toward book. What this case does NOT assume is a capital hole, a deposit run or a 2008-style credit event: 11.2% CET1 on $202B of CET1 capital is not in question here. It says the June quarter was the peak. Result: $42.19 a share, 1.44x tangible book and 1.07x book.

Global Wealth & Investment Management

Basis quarter$6.87B
Final quarter$8.13B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix24%

Merrill and the Private Bank. $6,871M of FTE revenue, +16% year over year, on $2.3T of AUM and $4.9T of client balances. Asset management fees are the swing factor and they follow market levels, which makes this a growth line rather than an AUM-times-fee-rate subscription.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.31B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.62B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.71B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.87B Reported
Merrill Wealth ManagementBank of America Private Bank
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 2.0% QoQ, below the 2.4% Q1-to-Q2 print. AUM +17% supports a mid-single-digit sequential.
Global Wealth & Investment Management

Latest: $8.13B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $5.41B
2023Q1 $5.32B
2023Q2 $5.24B
2023Q3 $5.32B
2023Q4 $5.23B
2024Q1 $5.59B
2024Q2 $5.57B
2024Q3 $5.76B
2024Q4 $6.00B
2025Q1 $6.02B
2025Q2 $5.94B
2025Q3 $6.31B
2025Q4 $6.62B
2026Q1 $6.71B
2026Q2 $6.87B
2026Q3E $6.95B
2026Q4E $7.03B
2027Q1E $7.10B
2027Q2E $7.17B
2027Q3E $7.24B
2027Q4E $7.31B
2028Q1E $7.37B
2028Q2E $7.43B
2028Q3E $7.49B
2028Q4E $7.55B
2029Q1E $7.61B
2029Q2E $7.67B
2029Q3E $7.73B
2029Q4E $7.79B
2030Q1E $7.85B
2030Q2E $7.90B
2030Q3E $7.96B
2030Q4E $8.02B
2031Q1E $8.08B
2031Q2E $8.13B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Asset management fees of $4.4B, +19%, are the majority of the line. AUM of $2.3T and client balances of $4.9T are the volume tell, but management fees are not disclosed against a fee rate the engine could charge.
  • The 27.4% margin is pre-tax income of $1,884M over $6,871M of FTE revenue, and it matches the 27% GWIM pre-tax margin ratio disclosed in the 2Q26 deck.
  • Provision is immaterial here at $11M on $6,871M of revenue: GWIM credit risk is securities-based lending, which charges off at about 0.01%. There is no provision cushion to give back in a downturn.
  • Terminal 27.0% holds the disclosed margin rather than expanding it, because the fee base is levered to market levels rather than to an operating-leverage story.
  • Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0298 against a worst window spread of 0.0497, with Q4 ratios of 0.970, 1.020 and 1.016 showing no stable shape.
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