← AMD forward model

AMD · Forward model · Embedded · Bull case

What has to happen in Embedded

Model as of

This page changes Embedded inside the complete AMD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,021.57 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.96B 4% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $11.19B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Helios ramps on schedule at Anthropic, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle. Data Center keeps a high sequential rate into 2027, mix lifts margin a few points, and the multiple holds a duration premium versus a generic semiconductor. What this case does NOT reach is Su's year-over-year double as a 2027 print — that is the named case.

Embedded

Basis quarter$977M
Final quarter$2.96B
Implied CAGR+25%
Final revenue mix4%

Xilinx FPGAs, embedded CPUs and adaptive SoCs. $977M in the basis quarter, +19% year over year, 39.5% segment operating margin. The recovery after 2025 customer-inventory digestion. A disclosed reportable segment with its own operating profit, unlike the Client/Gaming sub-lines.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $857M Reported
2025 Q4 $950M Reported
2026 Q1 $873M Reported
2026 Q2 $977M Reported
Versal and other adaptive SoCsEmbedded CPUs and APUsKria SOMs and industrial, auto and A&D FPGAs
Sequential growth +8.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 8% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +12% off a weak Q1; 8% holds the recovery without repeating the jump.
Embedded

Latest: $2.96B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $823M
2025Q2 $824M
2025Q3 $857M
2025Q4 $950M
2026Q1 $873M
2026Q2 $977M
2026Q3E $1.08B
2026Q4E $1.17B
2027Q1E $1.27B
2027Q2E $1.36B
2027Q3E $1.46B
2027Q4E $1.55B
2028Q1E $1.64B
2028Q2E $1.73B
2028Q3E $1.82B
2028Q4E $1.91B
2029Q1E $2.01B
2029Q2E $2.10B
2029Q3E $2.20B
2029Q4E $2.30B
2030Q1E $2.40B
2030Q2E $2.51B
2030Q3E $2.61B
2030Q4E $2.72B
2031Q1E $2.84B
2031Q2E $2.96B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Highest-margin disclosed segment and the smallest. Segment operating income $386M is 39.5% of $977M, published, not assumed. Terminal 40% holds that franchise rather than expanding it.
  • FY2025 Embedded was down 3% on customer inventory. Q2 2026 +19% is digestion ending. Opening 8% is below the Q1-to-Q2 jump on purpose.
  • Physical AI (Kria, Ryzen AI Embedded X100) is a content mix inside this line, not a fifth vertical. AMD has not published a robotics revenue series.
AMD model map

Explore another vertical