← AMCR forward model

AMCR · Forward model · Global Rigid Packaging Solutions · Bull case

What has to happen in Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Model as of

This page changes Global Rigid Packaging Solutions inside the complete AMCR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMCR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $91.88 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.81B 45% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.07B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Volumes inflect a little and remaining cost synergies land. What this case does NOT reach is the $650M three-year target being pulled into 2027, or the $280M of growth synergies as a new sales line — that is the named case.

Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Basis quarter$2.87B
Final quarter$3.81B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix45%

Bottles, closures and containers, now the Berry-heavy line. $2,873M in the basis quarter, 45% of sales, +38% reported. Acquisitions about 32 points. Comparable volumes roughly flat. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $2.69B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.45B Reported
2026 Q3 $2.66B Reported
2026 Q4 $2.87B Reported
Rigid containers and closuresBerry rigid operationsLatin America packaging
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Same 1% as flexibles. Q4/Q3 +8% is season. Do not trend Berry's 32-point acquisition step.
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Latest: $3.81B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2025Q4 $2.09B
2026Q1 $2.69B
2026Q2 $2.45B
2026Q3 $2.66B
2026Q4 $2.87B
2027Q1E $2.92B
2027Q2E $2.97B
2027Q3E $3.02B
2027Q4E $3.07B
2028Q1E $3.11B
2028Q2E $3.16B
2028Q3E $3.21B
2028Q4E $3.25B
2029Q1E $3.30B
2029Q2E $3.34B
2029Q3E $3.39B
2029Q4E $3.43B
2030Q1E $3.48B
2030Q2E $3.52B
2030Q3E $3.57B
2030Q4E $3.62B
2031Q1E $3.66B
2031Q2E $3.71B
2031Q3E $3.76B
2031Q4E $3.81B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • FY2026 rigid sales $10,677M were +110% constant currency because about $5.6B of acquired sales landed here.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin 12.3% in Q4. The 14.5% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 352/885 / $2,873M.
  • 2025 Q4 $2,088M is two months of Berry. Do not treat the jump to $2,689M in Q1 as organic volume.
AMCR model map

Explore another vertical