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AMCR · Forward model · Global Rigid Packaging Solutions · Bear case

What has to happen in Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Model as of

This page changes Global Rigid Packaging Solutions inside the complete AMCR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMCR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $16.70 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.42B 45% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.42B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Volumes stay negative, remaining Berry cost-out stalls, and $12.9B of net debt keeps leverage above the 3.5x stub guide. What this case does NOT assume is a dividend cut next quarter — the board just raised it to 65 cents — or insolvency. It says Q4's +0.5% volume was the high-water mark.

Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Basis quarter$2.87B
Final quarter$2.42B
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix45%

Bottles, closures and containers, now the Berry-heavy line. $2,873M in the basis quarter, 45% of sales, +38% reported. Acquisitions about 32 points. Comparable volumes roughly flat. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $2.69B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.45B Reported
2026 Q3 $2.66B Reported
2026 Q4 $2.87B Reported
Rigid containers and closuresBerry rigid operationsLatin America packaging
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Same 1% as flexibles. Q4/Q3 +8% is season. Do not trend Berry's 32-point acquisition step.
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Latest: $2.42B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2025Q4 $2.09B
2026Q1 $2.69B
2026Q2 $2.45B
2026Q3 $2.66B
2026Q4 $2.87B
2027Q1E $2.86B
2027Q2E $2.84B
2027Q3E $2.82B
2027Q4E $2.80B
2028Q1E $2.78B
2028Q2E $2.76B
2028Q3E $2.74B
2028Q4E $2.71B
2029Q1E $2.69B
2029Q2E $2.67B
2029Q3E $2.64B
2029Q4E $2.62B
2030Q1E $2.59B
2030Q2E $2.57B
2030Q3E $2.54B
2030Q4E $2.52B
2031Q1E $2.49B
2031Q2E $2.47B
2031Q3E $2.45B
2031Q4E $2.42B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • FY2026 rigid sales $10,677M were +110% constant currency because about $5.6B of acquired sales landed here.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin 12.3% in Q4. The 14.5% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 352/885 / $2,873M.
  • 2025 Q4 $2,088M is two months of Berry. Do not treat the jump to $2,689M in Q1 as organic volume.
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