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AMCR · Forward model · Global Rigid Packaging Solutions · Berry synergies case

What has to happen in Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Model as of

This page changes Global Rigid Packaging Solutions inside the complete AMCR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMCR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $98.55 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.62B 45% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.43B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Year-one synergy capture $285M on the call, 10% ahead of plan, against a $650M three-year target. This case pays for the rest of that programme and a bit of volume without inventing a sixth end-market or a second acquisition. It does not assume the $280M growth-synergy pool is already revenue.

Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Basis quarter$2.87B
Final quarter$3.62B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix45%

Bottles, closures and containers, now the Berry-heavy line. $2,873M in the basis quarter, 45% of sales, +38% reported. Acquisitions about 32 points. Comparable volumes roughly flat. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $2.69B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.45B Reported
2026 Q3 $2.66B Reported
2026 Q4 $2.87B Reported
Rigid containers and closuresBerry rigid operationsLatin America packaging
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Same 1% as flexibles. Q4/Q3 +8% is season. Do not trend Berry's 32-point acquisition step.
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions

Latest: $3.62B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2025Q4 $2.09B
2026Q1 $2.69B
2026Q2 $2.45B
2026Q3 $2.66B
2026Q4 $2.87B
2027Q1E $2.92B
2027Q2E $2.96B
2027Q3E $3.00B
2027Q4E $3.04B
2028Q1E $3.08B
2028Q2E $3.11B
2028Q3E $3.15B
2028Q4E $3.19B
2029Q1E $3.22B
2029Q2E $3.26B
2029Q3E $3.30B
2029Q4E $3.33B
2030Q1E $3.37B
2030Q2E $3.40B
2030Q3E $3.44B
2030Q4E $3.48B
2031Q1E $3.51B
2031Q2E $3.55B
2031Q3E $3.58B
2031Q4E $3.62B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • FY2026 rigid sales $10,677M were +110% constant currency because about $5.6B of acquired sales landed here.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin 12.3% in Q4. The 14.5% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 352/885 / $2,873M.
  • 2025 Q4 $2,088M is two months of Berry. Do not treat the jump to $2,689M in Q1 as organic volume.
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