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AMCR · Forward model · Global Flexible Packaging Solutions · Bull case

What has to happen in Global Flexible Packaging Solutions

Model as of

This page changes Global Flexible Packaging Solutions inside the complete AMCR model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMCR forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $91.88 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.67B 55% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $10.81B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Volumes inflect a little and remaining cost synergies land. What this case does NOT reach is the $650M three-year target being pulled into 2027, or the $280M of growth synergies as a new sales line — that is the named case.

Global Flexible Packaging Solutions

Basis quarter$3.52B
Final quarter$4.67B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix55%

Films, pouches and healthcare flexibles. $3,525M in the basis quarter, 55% of sales, +18% reported. About $297M acquired and $190M of raw-material pass-through. Comparable volumes about +1% on the call. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $3.06B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.00B Reported
2026 Q3 $3.25B Reported
2026 Q4 $3.52B Reported
Flexible films and pouchesHealthcare flexible packagingBerry flexible operations
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% Q4/Q3 was +8% on season and pass-through. 1% is volume plus leftover pass-through, not another Q4.
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions

Latest: $4.67B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2025Q4 $2.99B
2026Q1 $3.06B
2026Q2 $3.00B
2026Q3 $3.25B
2026Q4 $3.52B
2027Q1E $3.59B
2027Q2E $3.65B
2027Q3E $3.71B
2027Q4E $3.76B
2028Q1E $3.82B
2028Q2E $3.88B
2028Q3E $3.93B
2028Q4E $3.99B
2029Q1E $4.04B
2029Q2E $4.10B
2029Q3E $4.16B
2029Q4E $4.21B
2030Q1E $4.27B
2030Q2E $4.32B
2030Q3E $4.38B
2030Q4E $4.44B
2031Q1E $4.49B
2031Q2E $4.55B
2031Q3E $4.61B
2031Q4E $4.67B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not trend the +18% reported growth. Ten points of it is acquired sales; six is raw-material pass-through.
  • Adjusted EBIT $533M is 15.1% of sales. The 17.9% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 533/885 / $3,525M.
  • Latin America flexibles moved into Rigid in Q3 FY2026. History is as re-presented on the Q4 slides.
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