AMCR · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Amcor reports TWO segments — Global Flexible Packaging Solutions and Global Rigid Packaging Solutions — and this model copies those. Q4 $3,525M + $2,873M = $6,398M. 2025 Q4 is the first quarter with any Berry (two months); 2026 Q1 is the first full quarter. Do not load combined pro forma 2025 Q4 $6,036M as history. Do not split into six end-markets. Opening 1% sequential is not Q4/Q3 +8%. Segment EBITDA is allocated company adjusted EBITDA $1,045M by Q4 adjusted EBIT mix (flexibles $533M, rigid $352M). Capex 4% is Q4 PPE $235M / $6,398M. netCash is the release net debt $12,897M. Shares are Q4 diluted weighted 464.6 million after the 1-for-5 reverse split. House close $47.91; profile $40.61 is stale. Tax 17% is the 16.8% adjusted rate. Stub adj EPS $1.80–$1.90 is six-month non-GAAP and is not a quarterly sales guide.
Volumes stay negative, remaining Berry cost-out stalls, and $12.9B of net debt keeps leverage above the 3.5x stub guide. What this case does NOT assume is a dividend cut next quarter — the board just raised it to 65 cents — or insolvency. It says Q4's +0.5% volume was the high-water mark.
Latest: $5.39B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | $5.08B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.74B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.45B |
| 2026Q3 | $5.91B |
| 2026Q4 | $6.40B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.37B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.33B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.29B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.24B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.20B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.15B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.04B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.99B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.94B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.88B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.83B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.77B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.67B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.61B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.56B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.50B |
| 2031Q3E | $5.45B |
| 2031Q4E | $5.39B |
What drives each segment
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions
Growth pathFilms, pouches and healthcare flexibles. $3,525M in the basis quarter, 55% of sales, +18% reported. About $297M acquired and $190M of raw-material pass-through. Comparable volumes about +1% on the call. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.
Latest: $2.97B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | $2.99B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.00B |
| 2026Q3 | $3.25B |
| 2026Q4 | $3.52B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.51B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.49B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.46B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.44B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.41B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.39B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.36B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.33B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.30B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.27B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.24B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.21B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.18B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.15B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.12B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.09B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.06B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.03B |
| 2031Q3E | $3.00B |
| 2031Q4E | $2.97B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Do not trend the +18% reported growth. Ten points of it is acquired sales; six is raw-material pass-through.
- Adjusted EBIT $533M is 15.1% of sales. The 17.9% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 533/885 / $3,525M.
- Latin America flexibles moved into Rigid in Q3 FY2026. History is as re-presented on the Q4 slides.
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions
Growth pathBottles, closures and containers, now the Berry-heavy line. $2,873M in the basis quarter, 45% of sales, +38% reported. Acquisitions about 32 points. Comparable volumes roughly flat. No unit count, so sequential growth on the filed line.
Latest: $2.42B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | $2.09B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.45B |
| 2026Q3 | $2.66B |
| 2026Q4 | $2.87B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.86B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.84B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.82B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.80B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.78B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.76B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.74B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.71B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.69B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.67B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.64B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.62B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.59B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.57B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.54B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.52B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.49B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.47B |
| 2031Q3E | $2.45B |
| 2031Q4E | $2.42B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- FY2026 rigid sales $10,677M were +110% constant currency because about $5.6B of acquired sales landed here.
- Adjusted EBIT margin 12.3% in Q4. The 14.5% here is allocated company adj EBITDA $1,045M × 352/885 / $2,873M.
- 2025 Q4 $2,088M is two months of Berry. Do not treat the jump to $2,689M in Q1 as organic volume.
Where each case comes from
Berry synergies case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Berry synergies column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $7.66B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $21.90B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $3.17B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 1.0x |
| Terminal value | $21.90B |
| Discounted at 11.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $13.00B |
| Enterprise value | $20.65B |
| Net cash | -$12.90B |
| Equity value | $7.76B |
| Shares | 0.46B |
| Fair value per share | $16.70 |
| Against the current price of $46.52 | -64% |
9% for an investment-grade packager with $12.9B of net debt. Exit 1.5x trailing-year sales matches today's EV/sales: $47.91 × 464.6M shares is $22.3B of equity, plus $12.9B of net debt is $35.2B of EV on $23.5B of FY2026 sales, about 9.6x adjusted EBITDA of $3.67B. Move the exit multiple before opening growth. Stub adj EPS $1.80–$1.90 is six-month non-GAAP. Q4 GAAP EPS $0.83. FCF this quarter is the seasonal cash quarter.
Read the other way round: at $46.52 the market is paying 2.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Global Flexible Packaging Solutions | Global Rigid Packaging Solutions | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Q1E | $3.51B | $2.86B | $6.37B | +11% | $859M | $255M | $502M | +19 | $489M |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.49B | $2.84B | $6.33B | +16% | $862M | $253M | $505M | +24 | $479M |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.46B | $2.82B | $6.29B | +6% | $862M | $251M | $507M | +14 | $469M |
| 2027 Q4E | $3.44B | $2.80B | $6.24B | -2% | $862M | $250M | $508M | +6 | $458M |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.41B | $2.78B | $6.20B | -3% | $861M | $248M | $509M | +6 | $447M |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.39B | $2.76B | $6.15B | -3% | $859M | $246M | $509M | +5 | $435M |
| 2028 Q3E | $3.36B | $2.74B | $6.10B | -3% | $856M | $244M | $508M | +5 | $423M |
| 2028 Q4E | $3.33B | $2.71B | $6.04B | -3% | $852M | $242M | $507M | +5 | $411M |
| 2029 Q1E | $3.30B | $2.69B | $5.99B | -3% | $848M | $240M | $505M | +5 | $399M |
| 2029 Q2E | $3.27B | $2.67B | $5.94B | -3% | $844M | $238M | $503M | +5 | $388M |
| 2029 Q3E | $3.24B | $2.64B | $5.88B | -3% | $838M | $235M | $501M | +5 | $376M |
| 2029 Q4E | $3.21B | $2.62B | $5.83B | -4% | $833M | $233M | $498M | +5 | $364M |
| 2030 Q1E | $3.18B | $2.59B | $5.77B | -4% | $827M | $231M | $495M | +5 | $353M |
| 2030 Q2E | $3.15B | $2.57B | $5.72B | -4% | $821M | $229M | $492M | +5 | $341M |
| 2030 Q3E | $3.12B | $2.54B | $5.67B | -4% | $815M | $227M | $489M | +5 | $330M |
| 2030 Q4E | $3.09B | $2.52B | $5.61B | -4% | $809M | $224M | $485M | +5 | $320M |
| 2031 Q1E | $3.06B | $2.49B | $5.56B | -4% | $802M | $222M | $481M | +5 | $309M |
| 2031 Q2E | $3.03B | $2.47B | $5.50B | -4% | $796M | $220M | $478M | +5 | $299M |
| 2031 Q3E | $3.00B | $2.45B | $5.45B | -4% | $789M | $218M | $474M | +5 | $289M |
| 2031 Q4E | $2.97B | $2.42B | $5.39B | -4% | $782M | $216M | $470M | +5 | $279M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | all | $58.94 | Initial model. Two disclosed segments after Berry, allocated adj EBITDA, 1% sequential, exit 1.5x sales. |