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ABCL · Forward model · Licensing and royalty · Bear case

What has to happen in Licensing and royalty

Model as of

This page changes Licensing and royalty inside the complete ABCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $0.50 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $84628 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Phase 3 is delayed or tiny, Jazz and Vertex stay in deferred revenue, and the $727M is spent on a launch that barely prints. The 635 line still starts in 2030 Q1 — the engine cannot hide a vertical — but a −8 point vertical growth delta over 28 quarters leaves a few percent of the base launch at the exit. What this case does NOT assume is insolvency next year. The raise bought a runway.

Licensing and royalty

Basis quarter$149000
Final quarter$84628
Implied CAGR−8%
Final revenue mix1%

IP licences, research tools, royalties and occasional settlements. $0.149M in the basis quarter versus $10.445M a year earlier. FY2025 $46.9M was a patent settlement, not a royalty stream. COVID antibodies are no longer used. Sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $138000 Reported
2025 Q4 $37M Estimated
2026 Q1 $191000 Reported
2026 Q2 $149000 Reported
Platform licencesRoyalties on partnered moleculesLitigation settlements when they happen
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% Hold the dribble. Do not trend the $37M Q4 2025 settlement as if it were a royalty.
Licensing and royalty

Latest: $84,628.45 (2033Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $167,000.00
2025Q2 $10M
2025Q3 $138,000.00
2025Q4 $37M
2026Q1 $191,000.00
2026Q2 $149,000.00
2026Q3E $146,020.00
2026Q4E $143,099.60
2027Q1E $140,237.61
2027Q2E $137,432.86
2027Q3E $134,684.20
2027Q4E $131,990.51
2028Q1E $129,350.70
2028Q2E $126,763.69
2028Q3E $124,228.42
2028Q4E $121,743.85
2029Q1E $119,308.97
2029Q2E $116,922.79
2029Q3E $114,584.34
2029Q4E $112,292.65
2030Q1E $110,046.80
2030Q2E $107,845.86
2030Q3E $105,688.94
2030Q4E $103,575.16
2031Q1E $101,503.66
2031Q2E $99,473.59
2031Q3E $97,484.12
2031Q4E $95,534.43
2032Q1E $93,623.75
2032Q2E $91,751.27
2032Q3E $89,916.24
2032Q4E $88,117.92
2033Q1E $86,355.56
2033Q2E $84,628.45

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Q4 2025 $37.2M is a patent settlement plus a $1.0M milestone, not a royalty run-rate. It is flagged estimated as a remainder. Opening 0% does not repeat it.
  • Q2 2025 $10.4M is the other lumpy print. The four quiet quarters are $0.13–0.19M. That is the run-rate this model holds.
  • An ABCL635 out-licence would still print here. The delayed unit line is owned-product sales, not a partner cheque.
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