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ABCL · Forward model · Licensing and royalty · ABCL635 case

What has to happen in Licensing and royalty

Model as of

This page changes Licensing and royalty inside the complete ABCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABCL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $20.60 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $196872 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Phase 2 met both primary endpoints on 10 August 2026: 83% versus 33%, n=92, one 600 mg dose. This case is class expansion: a monthly injection taking share the daily NK3 oral did not, toward 250k treated-patient dollars (~$1B peak at $4,000 net). The engine shares one ceiling, so expansion is a revenue tilt, not a second patient cap. It does not move the 2030 Q1 start, invent a list price, or print 500k–1.5M patients. n=92 is not a commercial drug. It does not start Phase 3 for them.

Licensing and royalty

Basis quarter$149000
Final quarter$196872
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix0%

IP licences, research tools, royalties and occasional settlements. $0.149M in the basis quarter versus $10.445M a year earlier. FY2025 $46.9M was a patent settlement, not a royalty stream. COVID antibodies are no longer used. Sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $138000 Reported
2025 Q4 $37M Estimated
2026 Q1 $191000 Reported
2026 Q2 $149000 Reported
Platform licencesRoyalties on partnered moleculesLitigation settlements when they happen
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% Hold the dribble. Do not trend the $37M Q4 2025 settlement as if it were a royalty.
Licensing and royalty

Latest: $196,872.35 (2033Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $167,000.00
2025Q2 $10M
2025Q3 $138,000.00
2025Q4 $37M
2026Q1 $191,000.00
2026Q2 $149,000.00
2026Q3E $150,490.00
2026Q4E $151,994.90
2027Q1E $153,514.85
2027Q2E $155,050.00
2027Q3E $156,600.50
2027Q4E $158,166.50
2028Q1E $159,748.17
2028Q2E $161,345.65
2028Q3E $162,959.11
2028Q4E $164,588.70
2029Q1E $166,234.58
2029Q2E $167,896.93
2029Q3E $169,575.90
2029Q4E $171,271.66
2030Q1E $172,984.37
2030Q2E $174,714.22
2030Q3E $176,461.36
2030Q4E $178,225.97
2031Q1E $180,008.23
2031Q2E $181,808.32
2031Q3E $183,626.40
2031Q4E $185,462.66
2032Q1E $187,317.29
2032Q2E $189,190.46
2032Q3E $191,082.37
2032Q4E $192,993.19
2033Q1E $194,923.12
2033Q2E $196,872.35

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Q4 2025 $37.2M is a patent settlement plus a $1.0M milestone, not a royalty run-rate. It is flagged estimated as a remainder. Opening 0% does not repeat it.
  • Q2 2025 $10.4M is the other lumpy print. The four quiet quarters are $0.13–0.19M. That is the run-rate this model holds.
  • An ABCL635 out-licence would still print here. The delayed unit line is owned-product sales, not a partner cheque.
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