ABCL · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 28 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
AbCellera reports TWO revenue lines in 2026 — research fees and licensing/royalty — and this model copies those, then adds a third line the company does not report: ABCL635 product sales, delayed, zeros through 2026 Q2. FY2025 still printed a separate milestone line; Q4 2025 licensing $37.169M is the remainder after research $7.684M so $44.853M reconciles, and is flagged estimated. Jazz $84M and Vertex $28M are deferred cash, not Q2 P&L. Company operating loss $62.8M is internal R&D, not a −1,550% margin on $4M. R&D $46.0M and G&A $13.9M sit in corporate programmes through 2029 Q4, adjacent to the first 635 dollar. Capex $2.1M because the plant is built. netCash is June cash+marketable $540.1M plus $187M offering proceeds; no funded debt. Government funding of ~$110M is not cash. Shares are 306.5M at June 30 plus 17.4M new shares plus 3.1M pre-funded warrants. Tax 0% while they lose money. 635 start, patients and net price are assumed: Phase 3 is not dated, there is no list price. Base is Veozah FY2025 actual ~$309M. The 250k-patient ceiling is the named-case expansion cap, not 12 million prevalence and not a 500k–1.5M blockbuster.
Phase 3 is delayed or tiny, Jazz and Vertex stay in deferred revenue, and the $727M is spent on a launch that barely prints. The 635 line still starts in 2030 Q1 — the engine cannot hide a vertical — but a −8 point vertical growth delta over 28 quarters leaves a few percent of the base launch at the exit. What this case does NOT assume is insolvency next year. The raise bought a runway.
Latest: $9M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4M |
| 2025Q2 | $17M |
| 2025Q3 | $9M |
| 2025Q4 | $45M |
| 2026Q1 | $8M |
| 2026Q2 | $4M |
| 2026Q3E | $4M |
| 2026Q4E | $4M |
| 2027Q1E | $5M |
| 2027Q2E | $5M |
| 2027Q3E | $5M |
| 2027Q4E | $5M |
| 2028Q1E | $5M |
| 2028Q2E | $5M |
| 2028Q3E | $5M |
| 2028Q4E | $5M |
| 2029Q1E | $5M |
| 2029Q2E | $5M |
| 2029Q3E | $5M |
| 2029Q4E | $5M |
| 2030Q1E | $8M |
| 2030Q2E | $8M |
| 2030Q3E | $8M |
| 2030Q4E | $8M |
| 2031Q1E | $8M |
| 2031Q2E | $8M |
| 2031Q3E | $8M |
| 2031Q4E | $8M |
| 2032Q1E | $9M |
| 2032Q2E | $9M |
| 2032Q3E | $9M |
| 2032Q4E | $9M |
| 2033Q1E | $9M |
| 2033Q2E | $9M |
What drives each segment
Research fees
Growth pathDiscovery and access fees from partners. $3.901M in the basis quarter, 96% of revenue, down from $6.639M a year earlier. Partner-led programs with a downstream stake fell from 44 to 35. Jazz and Vertex add deferred cash, not this P&L line yet. Sequential growth on the filed total.
Latest: $5M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $4M |
| 2025Q2 | $7M |
| 2025Q3 | $9M |
| 2025Q4 | $8M |
| 2026Q1 | $8M |
| 2026Q2 | $4M |
| 2026Q3E | $4M |
| 2026Q4E | $4M |
| 2027Q1E | $4M |
| 2027Q2E | $5M |
| 2027Q3E | $5M |
| 2027Q4E | $5M |
| 2028Q1E | $5M |
| 2028Q2E | $5M |
| 2028Q3E | $5M |
| 2028Q4E | $5M |
| 2029Q1E | $5M |
| 2029Q2E | $5M |
| 2029Q3E | $5M |
| 2029Q4E | $5M |
| 2030Q1E | $5M |
| 2030Q2E | $5M |
| 2030Q3E | $5M |
| 2030Q4E | $5M |
| 2031Q1E | $5M |
| 2031Q2E | $5M |
| 2031Q3E | $5M |
| 2031Q4E | $5M |
| 2032Q1E | $5M |
| 2032Q2E | $5M |
| 2032Q3E | $5M |
| 2032Q4E | $5M |
| 2033Q1E | $5M |
| 2033Q2E | $5M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Do not read −76% company revenue as a broken platform. Partner-led programs with a downstream stake fell from 44 to 35 by design, which is the plan working.
- Jazz $84M and Vertex $28M are mostly deferred. Q2 P&L research fees are $3.9M. Do not add the upfronts to this line.
- Company operating loss $62.8M is not this line's cost. Internal R&D sits in a corporate programme of $46M a quarter.
Licensing and royalty
Growth pathIP licences, research tools, royalties and occasional settlements. $0.149M in the basis quarter versus $10.445M a year earlier. FY2025 $46.9M was a patent settlement, not a royalty stream. COVID antibodies are no longer used. Sequential growth on the filed total.
Latest: $84,628.45 (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $167,000.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $10M |
| 2025Q3 | $138,000.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $37M |
| 2026Q1 | $191,000.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $149,000.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $146,020.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $143,099.60 |
| 2027Q1E | $140,237.61 |
| 2027Q2E | $137,432.86 |
| 2027Q3E | $134,684.20 |
| 2027Q4E | $131,990.51 |
| 2028Q1E | $129,350.70 |
| 2028Q2E | $126,763.69 |
| 2028Q3E | $124,228.42 |
| 2028Q4E | $121,743.85 |
| 2029Q1E | $119,308.97 |
| 2029Q2E | $116,922.79 |
| 2029Q3E | $114,584.34 |
| 2029Q4E | $112,292.65 |
| 2030Q1E | $110,046.80 |
| 2030Q2E | $107,845.86 |
| 2030Q3E | $105,688.94 |
| 2030Q4E | $103,575.16 |
| 2031Q1E | $101,503.66 |
| 2031Q2E | $99,473.59 |
| 2031Q3E | $97,484.12 |
| 2031Q4E | $95,534.43 |
| 2032Q1E | $93,623.75 |
| 2032Q2E | $91,751.27 |
| 2032Q3E | $89,916.24 |
| 2032Q4E | $88,117.92 |
| 2033Q1E | $86,355.56 |
| 2033Q2E | $84,628.45 |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Q4 2025 $37.2M is a patent settlement plus a $1.0M milestone, not a royalty run-rate. It is flagged estimated as a remainder. Opening 0% does not repeat it.
- Q2 2025 $10.4M is the other lumpy print. The four quiet quarters are $0.13–0.19M. That is the run-rate this model holds.
- An ABCL635 out-licence would still print here. The delayed unit line is owned-product sales, not a partner cheque.
ABCL635
Units × priceOwned-product sales of ABCL635, a monthly subcutaneous NK3 antibody for moderate-to-severe VMS. No product revenue exists. First dollar is assumed in 2030 Q1, fourteen quarters out, after a Phase 3 the company has not dated. Units are treated patients; price is net dollars per patient-quarter. Base copies Veozah's printed year. The 250k ceiling is class expansion if the injection takes share the daily oral did not — that is the named case, not base.
Latest: $5M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2030Q1E | $2M |
| 2030Q2E | $3M |
| 2030Q3E | $3M |
| 2030Q4E | $3M |
| 2031Q1E | $3M |
| 2031Q2E | $3M |
| 2031Q3E | $3M |
| 2031Q4E | $3M |
| 2032Q1E | $4M |
| 2032Q2E | $4M |
| 2032Q3E | $4M |
| 2032Q4E | $4M |
| 2033Q1E | $4M |
| 2033Q2E | $5M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Phase 2 hit both endpoints on 10 August 2026 after one 600 mg dose, n=92. Half-life ~24 days supports monthly dosing. Phase 3 has not started. ClinicalTrials NCT07118891 primary completion is estimated February 2027 for the 12-week follow-up, not for a registrational trial.
- The 8-K says more than 12 million US women have moderate-to-severe VMS and more than six million seek treatment. That is prevalence, not the unit ceiling. Base copies Veozah FY2025. The 250k ceiling is assumed class expansion if a monthly injection plus no liver-monitoring burden takes share the daily NK3 oral did not.
- Astellas VEOZAH did ¥46.6 billion in FY2025 (year to March 2026), about $309M at 151 yen/USD, years after a $2B-plus peak-sales slide. Base copies that actual. Named-case 250k patients at $4,000 net is about $1B peak, their conservative expansion case, not 500k–1.5M and not the Astellas slide.
- The engine shares one ceiling across scenarios, so the named case is a revenue tilt toward 250k-patient dollars, not a second patient cap. Drag the ceiling slider to 500k if you want their $2B peak on this page. Bear crushes this line with a vertical growth delta; it does not delete the launch date.
Where each case comes from
ABCL635 case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the ABCL635 column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
ABCL635 Phase 2 top-line, 10 August 2026, and the 13 August offering
- Aug 10, 2026 The study met the primary efficacy endpoints achieving statistically significant reductions in both frequency and severity of VMSM-S at week 4 compared to placebo after a single dose.
- Aug 10, 2026 The mean percent reduction at week 4 for VMSM-S frequency was 83% for the ABCL635 treatment group versus a 33% reduction for placebo.
- Aug 12, 2026 We estimate that our net proceeds from this offering will be approximately $187.0 million, excluding the proceeds, if any, from the exercise of the pre-funded warrants.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 28 quarters | -$619M |
| Terminal-year revenue | $36M |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $16M |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.0x |
| Terminal value | $146M |
| Discounted at 15.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $55M |
| Enterprise value | -$564M |
| Net cash | $727M |
| Equity value | $163M |
| Shares | 0.33B |
| Fair value per share | $0.50 |
| Against the current price of $12.40 | -96% |
12% for a clinical-stage name whose Phase 3 is assumed, not dated. Exit 10x trailing-year revenue now that 635 is in the DCF as cash flows — 20x would double-count the option. Base lands near Veozah's printed ~$309M year. The 250k ceiling is named-case expansion, about $1B peak at $4,000 net, not 500k–1.5M. Cash after the raise is $727M on 327M shares, about $2.22 a share, against $12.50 on the tape. Move the patient ceiling before the exit multiple. GAAP EPS is a loss. FCF this quarter is Jazz deferred revenue.
Read the other way round: at $12.40 the market is paying 288.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Internal pipeline R&D
2026 Q3 → 2029 Q4Q2 R&D $46.0M a quarter for 14 quarters, through 2029 Q4, so Phase 3 spend sits next to the first 635 dollar in 2030 Q1. Not a percentage of $4M of partnership revenue.
G&A
2026 Q3 → 2029 Q4Q2 SG&A $13.9M for 14 quarters, through 2029 Q4. After launch, commercial cost sits in the 635 margin, not in this programme.
The projected path
| Quarter | Research fees | Licensing and royalty | ABCL635 | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $4M | $146020 | $0 | $4M | -52% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1439 | -$57M |
| 2026 Q4E | $4M | $143100 | $0 | $4M | -90% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1413 | -$55M |
| 2027 Q1E | $4M | $140238 | $0 | $5M | -44% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1316 | -$53M |
| 2027 Q2E | $5M | $137433 | $0 | $5M | +18% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1213 | -$51M |
| 2027 Q3E | $5M | $134684 | $0 | $5M | +15% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1185 | -$49M |
| 2027 Q4E | $5M | $131991 | $0 | $5M | +12% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1164 | -$48M |
| 2028 Q1E | $5M | $129351 | $0 | $5M | +9% | $2M | $61M | -$59M | -1147 | -$46M |
| 2028 Q2E | $5M | $126764 | $0 | $5M | +7% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1135 | -$44M |
| 2028 Q3E | $5M | $124228 | $0 | $5M | +5% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1127 | -$43M |
| 2028 Q4E | $5M | $121744 | $0 | $5M | +4% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1122 | -$41M |
| 2029 Q1E | $5M | $119309 | $0 | $5M | +3% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1119 | -$40M |
| 2029 Q2E | $5M | $116923 | $0 | $5M | +2% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1119 | -$38M |
| 2029 Q3E | $5M | $114584 | $0 | $5M | +1% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1120 | -$37M |
| 2029 Q4E | $5M | $112293 | $0 | $5M | +0% | $2M | $61M | -$58M | -1123 | -$36M |
| 2030 Q1E | $5M | $110047 | $2M | $8M | +46% | $3M | $758081 | $2M | +78 | $1M |
| 2030 Q2E | $5M | $107846 | $3M | $8M | +48% | $3M | $738696 | $3M | +81 | $1M |
| 2030 Q3E | $5M | $105689 | $3M | $8M | +50% | $3M | $722381 | $3M | +83 | $1M |
| 2030 Q4E | $5M | $103575 | $3M | $8M | +52% | $3M | $708774 | $3M | +86 | $1M |
| 2031 Q1E | $5M | $101504 | $3M | $8M | +6% | $3M | $697559 | $3M | +40 | $1M |
| 2031 Q2E | $5M | $99474 | $3M | $8M | +6% | $4M | $688462 | $3M | +40 | $1M |
| 2031 Q3E | $5M | $97484 | $3M | $8M | +6% | $4M | $681246 | $3M | +41 | $1M |
| 2031 Q4E | $5M | $95534 | $3M | $8M | +6% | $4M | $675713 | $3M | +42 | $1M |
| 2032 Q1E | $5M | $93624 | $4M | $9M | +7% | $4M | $671693 | $3M | +42 | $1M |
| 2032 Q2E | $5M | $91751 | $4M | $9M | +7% | $4M | $669043 | $3M | +43 | $1M |
| 2032 Q3E | $5M | $89916 | $4M | $9M | +7% | $4M | $667647 | $3M | +43 | $1M |
| 2032 Q4E | $5M | $88118 | $4M | $9M | +7% | $4M | $667408 | $3M | +44 | $1M |
| 2033 Q1E | $5M | $86356 | $4M | $9M | +8% | $4M | $668247 | $3M | +44 | $1M |
| 2033 Q2E | $5M | $84628 | $5M | $9M | +8% | $4M | $670102 | $3M | +45 | $1M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | all | $1.51 | Initial model. Two disclosed 2026 revenue lines, R&D and G&A as dollar programmes, ABCL635 the named case not a delayed launch. |
| 2026-08-26 | verticals.abcl635,horizon,corporate.programs,valuation,scenarios | $4.86 | Add ABCL635 as a delayed unit vertical, first revenue 2030 Q1, Veozah-actual analog. Horizon 28. Exit 10x. Programmes through 2029 Q4. |
| 2026-08-26 | price,verticals.abcl635.driver,verticals.abcl635.economics,scenarios,valuation | $5.18 | Tape $12.50. 635 ceiling 250k class-expansion cap; 17% ramp keeps base near Veozah's printed year. Named case is 250k-patient dollars. Terminal margin 60%. |