ABCL · Forward model · ABCL635 · Bear case
What has to happen in ABCL635
Model as of
This page changes ABCL635 inside the complete ABCL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
ABCL635
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$5M
Final revenue mix50%
Owned-product sales of ABCL635, a monthly subcutaneous NK3 antibody for moderate-to-severe VMS. No product revenue exists. First dollar is assumed in 2030 Q1, fourteen quarters out, after a Phase 3 the company has not dated. Units are treated patients; price is net dollars per patient-quarter. Base copies Veozah's printed year. The 250k ceiling is class expansion if the injection takes share the daily oral did not — that is the named case, not base.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Estimated
2025 Q4
$0
Estimated
2026 Q1
$0
Estimated
2026 Q2
$0
Estimated
US product sales of ABCL635 for moderate-to-severe VMSMonthly 600 mg subcutaneous self-injection
Units
10000/qtr
growing +17.0% per quarter
10,000 treated-patient opening base. Engine applies one 17% step; first earning quarter is ~11,700.
Price per unit
$1000
drifting 0.0% per quarter
Net $1,000/patient-quarter (~$333/month). Veozah list is ~$580/month; this is net, not WAC.
ABCL635
Latest: $5M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2030Q1E | $2M |
| 2030Q2E | $3M |
| 2030Q3E | $3M |
| 2030Q4E | $3M |
| 2031Q1E | $3M |
| 2031Q2E | $3M |
| 2031Q3E | $3M |
| 2031Q4E | $3M |
| 2032Q1E | $4M |
| 2032Q2E | $4M |
| 2032Q3E | $4M |
| 2032Q4E | $4M |
| 2033Q1E | $4M |
| 2033Q2E | $5M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Phase 2 hit both endpoints on 10 August 2026 after one 600 mg dose, n=92. Half-life ~24 days supports monthly dosing. Phase 3 has not started. ClinicalTrials NCT07118891 primary completion is estimated February 2027 for the 12-week follow-up, not for a registrational trial.
- The 8-K says more than 12 million US women have moderate-to-severe VMS and more than six million seek treatment. That is prevalence, not the unit ceiling. Base copies Veozah FY2025. The 250k ceiling is assumed class expansion if a monthly injection plus no liver-monitoring burden takes share the daily NK3 oral did not.
- Astellas VEOZAH did ¥46.6 billion in FY2025 (year to March 2026), about $309M at 151 yen/USD, years after a $2B-plus peak-sales slide. Base copies that actual. Named-case 250k patients at $4,000 net is about $1B peak, their conservative expansion case, not 500k–1.5M and not the Astellas slide.
- The engine shares one ceiling across scenarios, so the named case is a revenue tilt toward 250k-patient dollars, not a second patient cap. Type 500k into the ceiling if you want their $2B peak on this page. Bear crushes this line with a vertical growth delta; it does not delete the launch date.