ABCL · Forward model · ABCL635 · Bull case
What has to happen in ABCL635
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ABCL635
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$206M
Final revenue mix94%
Owned-product sales of ABCL635, a monthly subcutaneous NK3 antibody for moderate-to-severe VMS. No product revenue exists. First dollar is assumed in 2030 Q1, fourteen quarters out, after a Phase 3 the company has not dated. Units are treated patients; price is net dollars per patient-quarter. Base copies Veozah's printed year. The 250k ceiling is class expansion if the injection takes share the daily oral did not — that is the named case, not base.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Estimated
2025 Q4
$0
Estimated
2026 Q1
$0
Estimated
2026 Q2
$0
Estimated
US product sales of ABCL635 for moderate-to-severe VMSMonthly 600 mg subcutaneous self-injection
Units
10000/qtr
growing +17.0% per quarter
10,000 treated-patient opening base. Engine applies one 17% step; first earning quarter is ~11,700.
Price per unit
$1000
drifting 0.0% per quarter
Net $1,000/patient-quarter (~$333/month). Veozah list is ~$580/month; this is net, not WAC.
ABCL635
Latest: $206M (2033Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2028Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2029Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2030Q1E | $18M |
| 2030Q2E | $22M |
| 2030Q3E | $26M |
| 2030Q4E | $32M |
| 2031Q1E | $38M |
| 2031Q2E | $46M |
| 2031Q3E | $56M |
| 2031Q4E | $67M |
| 2032Q1E | $81M |
| 2032Q2E | $98M |
| 2032Q3E | $118M |
| 2032Q4E | $142M |
| 2033Q1E | $171M |
| 2033Q2E | $206M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Phase 2 hit both endpoints on 10 August 2026 after one 600 mg dose, n=92. Half-life ~24 days supports monthly dosing. Phase 3 has not started. ClinicalTrials NCT07118891 primary completion is estimated February 2027 for the 12-week follow-up, not for a registrational trial.
- The 8-K says more than 12 million US women have moderate-to-severe VMS and more than six million seek treatment. That is prevalence, not the unit ceiling. Base copies Veozah FY2025. The 250k ceiling is assumed class expansion if a monthly injection plus no liver-monitoring burden takes share the daily NK3 oral did not.
- Astellas VEOZAH did ¥46.6 billion in FY2025 (year to March 2026), about $309M at 151 yen/USD, years after a $2B-plus peak-sales slide. Base copies that actual. Named-case 250k patients at $4,000 net is about $1B peak, their conservative expansion case, not 500k–1.5M and not the Astellas slide.
- The engine shares one ceiling across scenarios, so the named case is a revenue tilt toward 250k-patient dollars, not a second patient cap. Type 500k into the ceiling if you want their $2B peak on this page. Bear crushes this line with a vertical growth delta; it does not delete the launch date.